Robustness of design flood estimates under nonstationary conditions: parameter sensitivity perspective

Abstract

The changing frequency of flooding in global watersheds, driven by various human and natural factors like land use/cover changes and global warming, necessitates innovative approaches in flood frequency analysis and risk assessment. Nonetheless, the reliability of nonstationary frequency analysis models remains a concern given challenges in accurately measuring the uncertainty introduced by these methods and the impact on design flood values. In this study, deviation-based differential sensitivity indices, including single-parameter (SDDSI) and entire-parameter (EDDSI) measures were developed to assess the influence of parameter uncertainty in nonstationary models using Bayesian statistics and "equivalent reliability" nonstationary design. The Weihe River, the largest tributary of the Yellow River which is experiencing both climate change and heavy impact of human activities, is chosen to be the study area to investigate the impact of precipitation change and land use change on nonstationary flood frequency. Results show that in the One-At-A-Time (OAT) sensitivity analysis under a small uncertainty scenario (SUS) for parameter inputs, the shape parameter stands out as the most influential factor (SDDSI_SUS = 0.347) affecting the 100-year design flood in the Stationary Generalized Extreme Value (SGEV) model. For the Non-Stationary GEV (NGEV) models, the influence of this parameter is less pronounced, with SDDSI_SUS values of 0.095 and 0.093 for the SSP126 and SSP585 scenarios, respectively. Instead, attention turns to the regression coefficient of the grassland area, associated with the GEV scale parameter. In global sensitivity analysis under the posterior uncertainty scenario (PUS) for parameter inputs, the EDDSI_PUS values for SGEV, NGEV_SSP126, and NGEV_SSP585 models were 0.52, 1.41, and 1.30, respectively, inferring heightened sensitivity of NGEV models to perturbations from entire parameters. It is anticipated that incorporating additional evidence, such as historical flood data, is essential for accurate nonstationary hydrological design to mitigating the influence of parameter uncertainty. The sensitivity indices in this study provide significant insights for assessing the robustness of nonstationary hydrological design in flood risk management and applications.