Rogun Dam—Path to Energy Independence or Security Threat?

Ringler

Bhaduri

et al. 2015

Water International

The construction of the Rogun Dam in the Amu Darya Basin to increase upstream energy generation creates potential trade-offs with existing downstream irrigation, due to the different timing of energy and irrigation water demands. The present analysis, based on a hydro-economic optimization model, shows that cooperative basin-wide maximization of benefits would lead to large increases in upstream hydropower production and only minor changes in downstream irrigation benefits. However, if upstream stations, including Rogun, are managed unilaterally to maximize energy production, hydropower benefits might more than double while irrigation benefits greatly decrease, thereby substantially reducing overall basin benefits.

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Benefits (Usd Millions)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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How would the Rogun Dam affect water and energy scarcity in Central Asia?

Ringler

Bhaduri

et al. 2015

Water International

“…For instance, irrigation operations and technological modernizations usually go hand in hand with a higher energy consumption, while energy production may depend on a biofuel-based production (agricultural byproducts, biofuel crops, etc.) [5,9,19]. Considering the strong interactions and interdependences of water, energy, and food production/livelihood systems, an integrated assessment and management of these systems should be at the center of policies on a sustainable use of scarce resources for economic growth.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Effect of Energy Constraints on Water Allocation Decisions: The Elaboration and Application of a System-Wide Economic-Water-Energy Model (SEWEM)

Lamers²

2016

Water

Worldwide, demand for water, energy, and food are on the rise due to population and industrial growth. Because of such increasing demands and in spite of the limitedness of key resources, more efficient ways to meet these demands become obligatory. Especially considering the multiple interlinkages between water, energy, and food/livelihood systems, an integrated management of key resources such as water, land, and energy deems essential for realizing synergetic efficiencies, for consistent policy decisions, and for sustainable development, in particular across the river basins of the world. Therefore, the general framework of a system-wide economic-water-energy model (SEWEM), which is applicable across river basins and adjustable to different spatial scales such as sub-catchments, is presented here to meet the demands for an effective analytical tool in dealing with water-energy-food/livelihood nexus challenges. Previous hydro-economic models often ignored energy requirements, for instance, for irrigation water supply, as well as energy supply constraints, which recurrently might have led to an overestimation of the optimal levels of ground and surface water uses. The SEWEM was developed to address this gap and analyze how optimal levels of surface and groundwater uses, as well as on irrigation and power production benefits, change in response to the consideration of energy supply constraints and energy requirements for water pumping and other agricultural production operations. This is illustrated for the case of the Aral Sea Basin (ASB) in Central Asia, where surface and groundwater supplies heavily depend on pumping and thus on energy availability. The findings underlined the overestimations of optimal water uses by a hydro-economic model that neglects energy constraints. Moreover, geographical conditions have affected the changes in optimal ratios of surface and groundwater uses and water distributions across the river basin when energy restrictions are taken into account. The results confirmed the importance of the consideration of energy constraints for the assessment of optimal water and land uses, and the essential role of an integrated analysis of water, energy, and food/livelihood systems for better-informed policy-making. Despite the added value of the SEWEM that can consider energy system constraints, further fine-tunings would make it even more relevant for addressing additional questions related to basin management. For example, improvements can be expected through considering the system dynamics, ecological aspects, income distribution effects, trade relationships, and institutional restrictions.

Economic costs of reduced irrigation water availability in Uzbekistan (Central Asia)

Lamers²

2016

Reg Environ Change

Reduced river runoff and expected upstream infrastructural developments are both potential threats to irrigation water availability for the downstream countries in Central Asia. Although it has been recurrently mentioned that a reduction in water supply will hamper irrigation in the downstream countries, the magnitude of associated economic losses, economy-wide repercussions on employment rates, and degradation of irrigated lands has not been quantified as yet. A computable general equilibrium model is used to assess the economy-wide consequences of a reduced water supply in Uzbekistan—a country that encompasses more than half of the entire irrigated croplands in Central Asia. Modeling findings showed that a 10–20 % reduction in water supply, as expected in the near future, may reduce the areas to be irrigated by 241,000–374,000 hectares and may cause unemployment to a population of 712–868,000, resulting in a loss for the national income of 3.6–4.3 %. A series of technical, financial, and institutional measures, implementable at all levels starting from the farm to the basin scale, are discussed for reducing the expected water risks. The prospects of improving the basin-wide water management governance, increasing water and energy use efficiency, and establishing the necessary legal and institutional frameworks for enhancing the introduction of needed technological and socioeconomic change are argued as options for gaining more regional water security and equity