Role of climate and invasive species in structuring trout distributions in the interior Columbia River Basin, USA

Wenger, Seth J.; Isaak, Daniel J.; Dunham, Jason B.; Fausch, Kurt D.; Luce, Charles H.; Neville, Helen M.; Rieman, Bruce E.; Young, Michael K.; Nagel, David E.; Horan, Dona L.; Chandler, Gwynne L.

doi:10.1139/f2011-034

Cited by 95 publications

(139 citation statements)

References 84 publications

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“…A growing number of studies predict substantial disruptions to aquatic ecosystems from climate change within the northwest U.S. (Battin et al 2007;Rieman et al 2007;Crozier et al 2008;Schindler et al 2008;Isaak et al 2010a;Mantua et al 2010;Wenger et al 2011a) and more broadly (Eaton and Schaller 1996;Keleher and Rahel 1996;Mohseni et al 2003;Hari et al 2006;Heino et al 2009). The trends in river and stream temperatures we document, in combination with increasing evidence of thermal constraints on some populations (Cooke et al 2004;Goneia et al 2006;Sutton et al 2007;Keefer et al 2007;Doremus and Tarlock 2008;Keefer et al 2009), suggest these predictions are being realized.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As a result, temperature strongly dictates the distribution and abundance of individual species across many spatial and temporal scales (Brannon et al 2004;Rieman et al 2007;Wenger et al 2011a). As anthropogenic climate change progresses and the Earth's temperatures warm this century, aquatic communities in rivers and streams will have to shift to track thermally suitable habitat, but could encounter difficulties in linear stream networks that are often heavily fragmented by water resource development (Daufresne and Boet 2007;Heino et al 2009).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate change effects on stream and river temperatures across the northwest U.S. from 1980–2009 and implications for salmonid fishes

et al. 2011

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Thermal regimes in rivers and streams are fundamentally important to aquatic ecosystems and are expected to change in response to climate forcing as the Earth's temperature warms. Description and attribution of stream temperature changes are key to understanding how these ecosystems may be affected by climate change, but difficult given the rarity of long-term monitoring data. We assembled 18 temperature time-series from sites on regulated and unregulated streams in the northwest U.S. to describe historical trends from 1980-2009 and assess thermal consistency between these stream categories. Statistically significant temperature trends were detected across seven sites on unregulated streams during all seasons of the year, with a cooling trend apparent during the spring and warming trends during the summer, fall, and winter. The amount of warming more than compensated for spring cooling to cause a net temperature increase, and rates of warming were highest during the summer (raw trend = 0.17°C/decade; reconstructed trend = 0.22°C/decade). Air temperature was the dominant factor explaining long-term stream temperature trends (82-94% of trends) and inter-annual variability (48-86% of variability), except during the summer when discharge accounted for approximately half (52%) of the inter-annual variation in stream temperatures. Seasonal temperature trends at eleven sites on regulated streams were qualitatively similar to those at unregulated sites if two sites managed to reduce summer and fall temperatures were excluded from the analysis. However, these trends were never statistically significant due to greater variation among sites that resulted from local water management policies and effects of upstream reservoirs. Despite serious deficiencies in the stream temperature monitoring record, our results suggest many streams in the northwest U.S. are exhibiting a regionally coherent response to climate forcing. More extensive monitoring efforts are needed as are techniques for short-term sensitivity analysis and reconstructing historical temperature trends so that spatial and temporal patterns of warming can be better understood. Continuation of warming trends this century will increasingly stress important regional salmon and trout resources and hamper efforts to recover these species, so comprehensive vulnerability assessments are needed to provide strategic frameworks for prioritizing conservation efforts.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change effects on stream and river temperatures across the northwest U.S. from 1980–2009 and implications for salmonid fishes

et al. 2011

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“…This method allowed us to specify potential relationships between candidate variables and species occurrences based on a priori hypotheses (SI Text; ref. 34), and to address spatial autocorrelation. Multilevel modeling reduces parameter bias associated with autocorrelation by modeling errors at multiple levels (40) and is well suited to the hierarchical structure of stream networks (41).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Flow regime, temperature, and biotic interactions drive differential declines of trout species under climate change

Wenger

Isaak

Luce

et al. 2011

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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519

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Broad-scale studies of climate change effects on freshwater species have focused mainly on temperature, ignoring critical drivers such as flow regime and biotic interactions. We use downscaled outputs from general circulation models coupled with a hydrologic model to forecast the effects of altered flows and increased temperatures on four interacting species of trout across the interior western United States (1.01 million km 2 ), based on empirical statistical models built from fish surveys at 9,890 sites. Projections under the 2080s A1B emissions scenario forecast a mean 47% decline in total suitable habitat for all trout, a group of fishes of major socioeconomic and ecological significance. We project that native cutthroat trout Oncorhynchus clarkii, already excluded from much of its potential range by nonnative species, will lose a further 58% of habitat due to an increase in temperatures beyond the species' physiological optima and continued negative biotic interactions. Habitat for nonnative brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis and brown trout Salmo trutta is predicted to decline by 77% and 48%, respectively, driven by increases in temperature and winter flood frequency caused by warmer, rainier winters. Habitat for rainbow trout, Oncorhynchus mykiss, is projected to decline the least (35%) because negative temperature effects are partly offset by flow regime shifts that benefit the species. These results illustrate how drivers other than temperature influence species response to climate change. Despite some uncertainty, large declines in trout habitat are likely, but our findings point to opportunities for strategic targeting of mitigation efforts to appropriate stressors and locations.global change | hydrology | invasive species | niche model | distribution modeling N early all broad-scale analyses of climate effects on freshwater species have focused on temperature shifts, to the exclusion of other climate-driven drivers. Although temperature is a critical determinant of metabolic and physical processes (1), important ecosystem effects on streams and rivers may also be mediated by flow regime and biotic interactions. Flow regime has been described as a "master variable" (2) that controls or influences many aspects of the physical aquatic environment, as well as the timing of reproduction and migration of many organisms (3). Biotic interactions are increasingly recognized as important components of climate-species relationships (4, 5), but are rarely included in projections of species distributions under future climates, with some notable exceptions (6). Competitive interactions in particular are not commonly modeled (but see ref. 7), despite interest in invasive-native species interaction under climate change (8). It is likely that all three factors-temperature, flow regime, and biotic interactions-will play important roles in future aquatic species distributional shifts (8-11).Trout serve as excellent model organisms for examining how these mechanisms could alter population dynamics and species distributio...

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“…Thermal influences for Bull Trout were modeled as a logistic-type relationship across the five states, with the species preferring mean water temperatures <10°C (e.g., Dunham et al 2003;Isaak et al 2010) and preference declining rapidly as temperature increases (e.g., Wenger et al 2011a). In contrast, thermal influences for Brook Trout were portrayed as a dome-shaped curve with preferred temperatures between 10°C to 15°C (e.g., Isaak et al 2009;Wenger et al 2011a). Synthesis of relevant information and a similar logic process was used to define states of the other nodes (Appendix B, see http://fisheries.org/appendices).…”

Section: Bayesian Networkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Full Issue PDF Volume 38, Issue 3

2013

Fisheries

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There are numerous applications for CWTs. Examples are: evaluate how hatchery practices affect post release survival; identify the stock of origin and age; estimate population size; estimate fishery contributions of a particular stock over time; monitor habitat use; measure growth; evaluate whether stocked fish contribute to population recovery; learn about migration routes and straying between populations; evaluate the effects of climate change on Pacific salmon. Hundreds of publications describing their use are available on our website. Please contact us if we can help with your project. Corporate Office 360.468.3375 office@nmt.us Biological Services

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Role of climate and invasive species in structuring trout distributions in the interior Columbia River Basin, USA

Cited by 95 publications

References 84 publications

Climate change effects on stream and river temperatures across the northwest U.S. from 1980–2009 and implications for salmonid fishes

Climate change effects on stream and river temperatures across the northwest U.S. from 1980–2009 and implications for salmonid fishes

Flow regime, temperature, and biotic interactions drive differential declines of trout species under climate change

Full Issue PDF Volume 38, Issue 3

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