Variceal hemorrhage, a potentially life-threatening complication of portal hypertension caused by cirrhosis, results in 15,000 hospital admissions in the United States annually. 1 In the past, the definitive management of portal hypertension has been portal-decompressive surgery. Creating a communication between the hypertensive portal vein or its principal tributaries and the normotensive inferior vena cava or its principal tributaries improves portal pressure and decompresses varices. The distal splenorenal shunt (DSRS) is one such communication that has been studied extensively in Child' s class A cirrhosis. Because of its selective nature, it can decrease portal hypertension while minimizing the risk of portosystemic encephalopathy, an advantage that is not enjoyed by less selective shunts.Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) is a less invasive, radiologic procedure in which a shunt is created in the hepatic parenchyma between the portal and hepatic veins. TIPS is analogous to a side-to-side surgical portocaval shunt but avoids the risk of surgery. Since the first successes were reported by Colapinto et al., 2 TIPS has become a frequently used alternative to surgery in the management of variceal bleeding that is unresponsive to conventional medical and endoscopic therapy. It also has been used for the secondary prophylaxis of variceal bleeding and for refractory ascites. 3 TIPS is preferred to surgery in patients with reduced life expectancy and in whom shunt surgery is risky, as in Child' s class C cirrhosis. TIPS has also been used in patients with longer life expectancy, such as in Child' s class A cirrhosis patients. However, the use of TIPS in patients with longer life expectancy has been called into question because of high rates of stent dysfunction (occlusion, thrombosis, or stenosis) ranging from 33% to 66% within the first 12 months of placement. [3][4][5][6][7] In patients with long survival, the surgical shunt might be preferable, but this has not been evaluated in a systematic fashion.The aim of our study was to investigate the effectiveness and costs of TIPS compared with DSRS in Child' s class A cirrhosis using a deterministic decision analysis model. We developed the model to examine the main effects of mortality from each procedure and stent dysfunction for TIPS.
PATIENTS AND METHODSWe constructed a decision analysis model to compare outcomes over 2 years for a patient with Child' s class A cirrhosis undergoing either a DSRS or TIPS. Events of interest were procedure death, dysfunction of TIPS, dysfunction of DSRS, and death from liver disease in each year of the model. In the model, dysfunction of TIPS was defined as any abnormality detected by Doppler ultrasound that would lead to a revision of the TIPS, whether this was stenosis, occlusion, or thrombosis. 4 We defined DSRS dysfunction as thrombosis detected on scheduled angiography 1 week after DSRS surgery. Because of the lack of comparative data, we chose not to evaluate the outcomes of encephalopathy and bleeding. We pe...