fIn HIV-1 infection, the early set-point viral load strongly predicts both viral transmission and disease progression. The factors responsible for the wide spectrum of set-point viral loads are complex and likely reflect an interplay between the transmitted virus and genetically defined factors in both the transmitting source partner and the seroconverter. Indeed, analysis of 195 transmission pairs from Lusaka, Zambia, revealed that the viral loads in transmitting source partners contributed only ϳ2% of the variance in early set-point viral loads of seroconverters (P ؍ 0.046 by univariable analysis). In multivariable models, early setpoint viral loads in seroconverting partners were a complex function of (i) the viral load in the source partner, (ii) the gender of the seroconverter, (iii) specific HLA class I alleles in the newly infected partner, and (iv) sharing of HLA-I alleles between partners in a transmission pair. Each of these factors significantly and independently contributed to the set-point viral load in the newly infected partner, accounting for up to 37% of the variance observed and suggesting that many factors operate in concert to define the early virological phenotype in HIV-1 infection.
The HIV-1 set-point viral load (VL) in infected individuals directly affects the transmission rate of the virus (1-3) and early disease progression (4-6). Recent studies have shown a trend of increasing set-point VLs over the last 30 years of the HIV-1 epidemic (7, 8), raising the possibility of both increasing transmission rates and virulence in treatment of naïve HIV-1 infection. A plausible explanation for this observation is viral adaptation to the host at the population level over time (9, 10), providing a further challenge for HIV-1 vaccine design. The determinants of set-point VL in newly infected individuals include viral genetic factors (11-13) and host genetic factors (14-16). Thus, to comprehensively define the role of underlying factors in determining early set-point VL, it is necessary to understand the complexity of the interaction between the transmitted founder virus, with its embedded footprints of the immune response of the transmitting source partner (TSP), and the de novo immune defense of the seroconverting partner (SC).We previously observed that cytotoxic T-lymphocyte (CTL) epitope escape mutations selected by immune pressure in the TSP can modulate the early set-point VL in the SC (11, 17), suggesting that mutations that would be expected to positively impact VL in the TSP can negatively impact VL in the seroconverter. This observation is consistent with our previous studies of the ZEHRP cohort and with other studies of heterosexual cohorts of limited size. These studies demonstrated a relatively weak correlation between VLs in TSPs and SCs in linked heterosexual transmission partners (18)(19)(20). In contrast, a more significant VL correlation was shown for a transmission pair cohort of men who have sex with men (MSM) in San Francisco (21), and a phylogenetic analysis of MSM in the Swi...