Abstract. Ocean primary production is the basis of the marine food
web, sustaining life in the ocean via photosynthesis, and removing carbon
dioxide from the atmosphere. Recently, a small but significant decrease in
global marine primary production has been reported based on ocean color
data, which was mostly ascribed to decreases in primary production in the
northern Indian Ocean, particularly in the Bay of Bengal. Available reports on primary production from the Bay of Bengal (BoB) are
limited, and due to their spatial and temporal variability difficult to
interpret. Primary production in the BoB has historically been described to
be driven by diatom and chlorophyte clades, while only more recent datasets
also show an abundance of smaller cyanobacterial primary producers visually difficult to detect. The different character of the available
datasets, i.e., direct counts, metagenomic and biogeochemical data, and
satellite-based ocean color observations, make it difficult to derive a
consistent pattern. However, making use of the most highly resolved dataset
based on satellite imaging, a shift in community composition of primary
producers is visible in the BoB over the last 2 decades. This shift is
driven by a decrease in chlorophyte abundance and a coinciding increase in
cyanobacterial abundance, despite stable concentrations of total
chlorophyll. A similar but somewhat weaker trend is visible in the Arabian
Sea, where satellite imaging points towards decreasing abundances of
chlorophytes in the north and increasing abundances of cyanobacteria in the
eastern parts. Statistical analysis indicated a correlation of this
community change in the BoB to decreasing nitrate concentrations, which may
provide an explanation for both the decrease in eukaryotic
nitrate-dependent primary producers and the increase in small unicellular
cyanobacteria related to Prochlorococcus, which have a comparably higher affinity to
nitrate. Changes in community composition of primary producers and an
overall decrease in system productivity would strongly impact oxygen
concentrations of the BoB's low-oxygen intermediate waters. Assuming
decreasing nitrate concentrations and concurrent decreasing biomass
production, export, and respiration, oxygen concentrations within the oxygen
minimum zone would not be expected to further decrease. This effect could be
enhanced by stronger stratification as a result of future warming and thus
possibly counteract oxygen decrease as a direct effect of stratification.
Therefore, given a decrease in primary production, the BoB may not be at a
tipping point for becoming anoxic, unless external nutrient inputs increase.