Role of Information in Decision Making of Social Agents

Yukalov, V. I.; Sornette, Didier

doi:10.1142/s0219622014500564

Cited by 29 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 123 publications

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“…And it would be possible to explain the known stylized facts in financial markets, such as, for example, the fat tails of return distributions, and volatility clustering, as well as transient bubbles and crashes, which are connected with herding behavior. Some first results in that direction are reported in our previous papers [6,28], where the role of additional information, received by decision makers, is analyzed and it is shown that the amount of the additional information essentially influences the value of the quantum term. Further work on the generalization of the approach toward a dynamical theory of decision-maker societies is in progress.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 94%

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Inconclusive Quantum Measurements and Decisions under Uncertainty

Yukalov

Sornette

2016

Front. Phys.

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We give a mathematical definition for the notion of inconclusive quantum measurements. In physics, such measurements occur at intermediate stages of a complex measurement procedure, with the final measurement result being operationally testable. Since the mathematical structure of Quantum Decision Theory (QDT) has been developed in analogy with the theory of quantum measurements, the inconclusive quantum measurements correspond, in QDT, to intermediate stages of decision making in the process of taking decisions under uncertainty. The general form of the quantum probability for a composite event is the sum of a utility factor, describing a rational evaluation of the considered prospect, and of an attraction factor, characterizing irrational, subconscious attitudes of the decision maker. Despite the involved irrationality, the probability of prospects can be evaluated. This is equivalent to the possibility of calculating quantum probabilities without specifying hidden variables. We formulate a general way of evaluation, based on the use of non-informative priors. As an example, we suggest the explanation of the decoy effect. Our quantitative predictions are in very good agreement with experimental data.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 94%

“…In quantum theory, decoherence can be due to external as well as to internal perturbations and the influence of measurements [25][26][27]. And in QDT, decoherence can occur due to the accumulation of information [28]. The disappearance of the quantum term implies the transition to classical theory.…”

Section: Composite Quantum Measurements and Eventsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Inconclusive Quantum Measurements and Decisions under Uncertainty

Yukalov

Sornette

2016

Front. Phys.

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“…In the present section, we briefly sketch the basic scheme of QDT in order to remind the reader about the definition of quantum probability used in decision theory. The technical details have been thoroughly expounded in the previous articles [20]- [26], which allows us to just recall here the basic notions.…”

Section: Scheme Of Quantum Decision Theorymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Our approach is based on Quantum Decision Theory (QDT), which we developed earlier [20]- [26]. There have been other attempts to apply quantum techniques to cognitive sciences, as is discussed in the books [27]- [30] and review articles [31]- [34].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantitative Predictions in Quantum Decision Theory

Yukalov

Sornette

2018

IEEE Trans. Syst. Man Cybern, Syst.

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Quantum Decision Theory, advanced earlier by the authors, and illustrated for lotteries with gains, is generalized to the games containing lotteries with gains as well as losses. The mathematical structure of the approach is based on the theory of quantum measurements, which makes this approach relevant both for the description of decision making of humans and the creation of artificial quantum intelligence. General rules are formulated allowing for the explicit calculation of quantum probabilities representing the fraction of decision makers preferring the considered prospects. This provides a method to quantitatively predict decision-maker choices, including the cases of games with high uncertainty for which the classical expected utility theory fails. The approach is applied to experimental results obtained on a set of lottery gambles with gains and losses. Our predictions, involving no fitting parameters, are in very good agreement with experimental data. The use of quantum decision making in game theory is described. A principal scheme of creating quantum artificial intelligence is suggested.

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“…It provides expressions for discount functions, employed in the theory of time discounting [45] and explains dynamical inconsistencies [5]. QDT also describes the influence of information and a surrounding society on individual decision makers [11,12]. While QDT has been developed to describe the behavior of human decision makers, it can also be used as a guide to create artificial quantum intelligence [6].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantum Decision Theory in Simple Risky Choices

et al. 2016

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Quantum decision theory (QDT) is a recently developed theory of decision making based on the mathematics of Hilbert spaces, a framework known in physics for its application to quantum mechanics. This framework formalizes the concept of uncertainty and other effects that are particularly manifest in cognitive processes, which makes it well suited for the study of decision making. QDT describes a decision maker's choice as a stochastic event occurring with a probability that is the sum of an objective utility factor and a subjective attraction factor. QDT offers a prediction for the average effect of subjectivity on decision makers, the quarter law. We examine individual and aggregated (group) data, and find that the results are in good agreement with the quarter law at the level of groups. At the individual level, it appears that the quarter law could be refined in order to reflect individual characteristics. This article revisits the formalism of QDT along a concrete example and offers a practical guide to researchers who are interested in applying QDT to a dataset of binary lotteries in the domain of gains.

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Role of Information in Decision Making of Social Agents

Cited by 29 publications

References 123 publications

Inconclusive Quantum Measurements and Decisions under Uncertainty

Inconclusive Quantum Measurements and Decisions under Uncertainty

Quantitative Predictions in Quantum Decision Theory

Quantum Decision Theory in Simple Risky Choices

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