Role of mathematical modelling in future pandemic response policy

Assessing resilience of a health system is difficult but necessary to prepare for the next crisis

“…Modelling provides an alternative. However, although models can make good short term predictions, they face many challenges 4…”

“…In addition, infection may spread unnoticed within marginalised communities (which may be disproportionately affected because, for example, they live in precarious circumstances) making the size of an epidemic uncertain. Both the shock and the response are, using the word in its mathematical meaning, complex5 as they involve many diverse human responses 4…”

Reconstructing the first COVID-19 pandemic wave with minimal data in the UK

“…The COVID-19 pandemic has been with us more than three years, inflicting devastating effects on global populations and economies [1,2] and now still affecting countries in very different ways. Reviewing the COVID-19 pandemic evolution and evaluating previous responses is vital important for future pandemic preparedness [3][4][5][6].…”

Insights into the quantification and reporting of model-related uncertainty across different disciplines

“… 16 , 17 , 22 Indeed, inquiries into the science of COVID-19 have now begun, with scientific papers considering the role of mathematical models used for policy decisions. 25 …”