Background
Identification of noninvasive predictors of esophageal varices will permit to carry out endoscopy in selected groups of patients, thus avoiding unnecessary intervention as well as not missing patients at high risk of bleeding. The aim of this study was to investigate the accuracy of serum autotaxin and Doppler ultrasound parameters as noninvasive predictors in determining the presence and severity of esophageal varices in patients with liver cirrhosis.
Results
In our prospective study, 100 newly diagnosed naïve patients with liver cirrhosis and with no past history of upper gastrointestinal bleeding were enrolled. Serum autotaxin was significantly higher among patients with esophageal varices than those without varices (p < 0.001). Furthermore, among patients with varices, it was significantly higher in those with grade IV than grades I, II, and III (p < 0.001). Significant positive correlation was also observed between serum autotaxin and each of portal vein diameter, flow volume, portal vein velocity, and hepatic congestion index (p < 0.001). Child–Pugh classification, fibrosis-4 (FIB-4), age to platelet index (API), model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), platelet/splenic diameter, portal vein velocity, flow volume, and serum autotaxin were entered in stepwise logistic regression model for prediction of esophageal varices, and serum autotaxin, portal vein velocity, and flow volume were significant in multivariate regression analysis with sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of 96.25%, 75%, 93.9%, and 83.33%, respectively.
Conclusion
Serum autotaxin levels and Doppler ultrasound parameters serve as important predictors as well as promising non-endoscopic tools for the assessment of esophageal varices (EVs) in cirrhotic patients.