Room for improvement: Hydroclimatic challenges to poverty-reducing development of the Brahmaputra River basin

Ray, Patrick A.; Yang, Ethan; Wi, Sungwook; Khalil, Abedalrazq F.; Chatikavanij, Vansa; Brown, Casey

doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2015.06.015

Cited by 45 publications

(56 citation statements)

References 87 publications

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“…Past climate conditions in the region show an increasing trend in temperature of 0.6°C during the last century (Immerzeel 2008), while studies on precipitation are still inconclusive (Nepal and Shrestha 2015;Ray et al 2015). No long-term trend in discharge is apparent, only a slight increase in mean discharge of the last few decades (Sarker et al 2014;Ray et al 2015).…”

Section: Site Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Even though basin-wide integrated resource management is fundamental for a sustainable development in this region (Rasul 2014;Liu 2015), management of sediment and erosion has so far mainly been a national concern (Ray et al 2015). The consideration of larger spatial perspectives and the development of cross-boundary collaboration are thus key challenges for the region, particularly with ongoing climatic changes, causing altered precipitation and temperature patterns that could leave an imprint on riverine sediment transport.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The successful implementation of such plans will likely require improved basic information on the functioning of the river system. Similarly, the lack of adequate knowledge was recently highlighted (Kilroy 2015;Ray et al 2015) for development of agriculture and hydropower, specifically with regard to variable discharge and sediment load dynamics in the face of climatic and other anthropogenic changes. There is thus an emergent need for science-based advice on how to prioritize efforts to target existing knowledge gaps.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The region's dense and largely poor population is expected to become 50 % more urbanized by 2025 compared to today, causing even larger pressures on energy demand and natural resources (Singh and Goswami 2012;Ray et al 2015). Present land use changes and expansion of river infrastructure in the Brahmaputra river basin are already affecting both the sediment and hydrological conditions in the basin (Sarma 2005;Ray et al 2015). There is a large potential to expand both the downstream agricultural production and the upstream hydropower generation to increase the low living standards (Dikshit and Dikshit 2014), and such expansion would strongly influence hydrology.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Present to future sediment transport of the Brahmaputra River: reducing uncertainty in predictions and management

et al. 2016

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The Brahmaputra River in South Asia carries one of the world's highest sediment loads, and the sediment transport dynamics strongly affect the region's ecology and agriculture. However, present understanding of sediment conditions and dynamics is hindered by limited access to hydrological and geomorphological data, which impacts predictive models needed in management. We here synthesize reported peer-reviewed data relevant to sediment transport and perform a sensitivity analysis to identify sensitive and uncertain parameters, using the one-dimensional model HEC-RAS, considering both present and future climatic conditions. Results showed that there is considerable uncertainty in openly available estimates (260-720 Mt yr -1 ) of the annual sediment load for the Brahmaputra River at its downstream Bahadurabad gauging station (Bangladesh). This may aggravate scientific impact studies of planned power plant and reservoir construction in the region, as well as more general effects of ongoing land use change and climate change. We found that data scarcity on sediment grain size distribution, water discharge, and Manning's roughness coefficient had the strongest controls on the modelled sediment load. However, despite uncertainty in absolute loads, we showed that predicted relative changes, including a future increase in sediment load by about 40 % at Bahadurabad by 2075-2100, were consistent across multiple model simulations. Nevertheless, for the future scenarios we found that parameter uncertainty almost doubled for water discharge and river geometry, highlighting that improved information on these parameters could greatly advance the abilities to predict and manage current and future sediment dynamics in the Brahmaputra river basin.

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Section: Site Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Present to future sediment transport of the Brahmaputra River: reducing uncertainty in predictions and management

et al. 2016

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Evaluation of corrected APHRODITE estimates for hydrological simulation in the Yarlung Tsangpo–Brahmaputra River Basin

Luo

Fan

et al. 2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Precipitation is one of the most important inputs for hydrological simulation because it controls water balance, and accurate representation of rainfall distribution is essential for hydrological simulation. In the Yarlung Tsangpo–Brahmaputra River Basin (YBRB), gauge‐based gridded datasets have difficulties in representing complex orographic precipitation as the rainfall stations are too sparse to capture accurate precipitation patterns. This study used Asian Precipitation Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of Water Resources (APHRODITE) estimates to drive the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model in the YBRB. Bias correction on APHRODITE estimates was achieved through linear scaling based on a denser network of gauges. In addition, the elevation bands method was implemented in SWAT to reproduce spatial precipitation by considering orographic effects. The results showed that original APHRODITE data tended to systematically underestimate rainy season precipitation with considerable underestimation on windward slopes of the Himalayas. Corrected APHRODITE data increased precipitation estimates and were able to better represent the spatial patterns of precipitation. During the calibration and validation periods, the mean monthly Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of the corrected APHRODITE‐simulation were 0.86 and 0.82, respectively, which were much higher than those of the original APHRODITE‐simulation (0.79 and 0.72), indicating the reliability of corrected APHRODITE estimates in driving hydrological model. In addition, although the elevation bands method has some limitations induced by the constant precipitation lapse rate, it was also found that this method could improve the accuracy of hydrological simulation. In large transboundary sparsely gauged river basins, implementation of bias correction and elevation bands can improve the representation of spatial precipitation of gridded gauge‐based rainfall products, which may be beneficial for hydrological simulation and water resources management.

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Climate change and the hydropower sector: A global review

Wasti

Ray

et al. 2022

WIREs Climate Change

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Renewable sources of electricity, such as solar and wind, need to be paired with sources of reliable baseload. Hydropower is a renewable, low‐emission source of electricity baseload available throughout much of the world as an alternative to electricity conventionally provided by thermal combustion of fossil fuels; however, the global hydropower sector as it stands relies upon surface water flows of substantial and predictable volume. This makes it vulnerable to climate change. The impact of climate change on the hydropower sector is difficult to predict, and not globally uniform. It might be positive, negative, or inconsequential depending upon the local timing and magnitude of changes, reservoir size, allocation priority, and the energy market. The secondary effects of climate change on glacier lake outbursts floods, landslides, and sediment load are poorly understood. In addition, when planning hydropower projects for the future, attention must be given to the greenhouse gas contribution of the impounded waters behind storage dams, and the impact of dams on water temperature. In the past decade, sovereign nations and international development agencies worldwide have evaluated the potential of hydropower as a cost‐effective, clean, sustainable option for baseload electricity supply. There is therefore a crucial need to assess the opportunities and risks hydropower poses across a wide range of potential future climate conditions. This review paper conducts a global survey of the literature on the effect of climate change on hydropower and identifies room for improvement in current approaches to evaluation of the net benefits of hydropower projects under climate change. This article is categorized under: Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change > Learning from Cases and Analogies Assessing Impacts of Climate Change > Evaluating Future Impacts of Climate Change

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Room for improvement: Hydroclimatic challenges to poverty-reducing development of the Brahmaputra River basin

Cited by 45 publications

References 87 publications

Present to future sediment transport of the Brahmaputra River: reducing uncertainty in predictions and management

Present to future sediment transport of the Brahmaputra River: reducing uncertainty in predictions and management

Evaluation of corrected APHRODITE estimates for hydrological simulation in the Yarlung Tsangpo–Brahmaputra River Basin

Climate change and the hydropower sector: A global review

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