Balsam fir (Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.) forests are inherently vulnerable to windthrow, especially when silvicultural treatments are applied. During recent years, it has become possible to model windthrow risk based on a good understanding of windthrow mechanics. In the present paper, the British ForestGales model has been adapted for balsam fir with data from a winching study in Quebec, Canada. This model calculates the threshold wind speed required to break or overturn the average tree in a stand and then calculates the probability of exceeding the threshold value. Modifications of the equations predicting crown characteristics and overturning resistance were introduced. The effects of age, site quality, wind exposure, thinning and the creation of new edges were assessed. The estimated critical wind speed for overturning and breakage decreases with age but the probability of damage remains low on sheltered sites. The creation of a new edge leads to an increased probability of damage, especially on exposed, highly productive sites. Thinning alone also increases the probability of damage and the magnitude of the increase varies with age and thinning intensity. On highly productive sheltered sites, the effect of thinning becomes especially important when thinning exceeds 35% of the number of stems or when stand age is greater than 70 years for a 35% thinning intensity. Thinning of new edges was also found to further increase the risk of windthrow on the most sheltered, high quality sites.Les peupements de sapin baumier (Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.) sont, de f a~o n inhkente, vulnCrables au chablis, en particulier lorsque des traitements sylvicoles y sont appliques. Au cours des dernicres annCes, il est devenu possible de modCliser le risque de chablis sur la base d'une saine comprChension de la mCcanique du chablis. Dans le prCsent article, le modkle Britannique ForestGales a Ct C adaptC pour le sapin baumier h partir d'une Ctude de treuillage rCalisCe au QuCbec. Ce modkle calcule la vitesse nkcessaire la rupture ou au deracinement de la tige moyenne d'un peuplement puis estime la probabilite que cette valeur soit dCpasde. Des modifications ont Ct C apportCes aux Cquations prkdisant les caracttristiques de la cime et la rksistance au renversement. La simulation a port6 sur l'effet de l'bge, de la qualit6 de station, de l'exposition au vent, de l'tclaircie et de la crkation de nouvelles lisikres. Selon les simulations, la vitesse critique pour le bris ou le dkracinement diminue avec l'bge mais la probabilitt demeure faible pour les sites abritCs.