Ross Macdonald: Un modelo para la dinámica del dengue en Cali, Colombia

Abstract

Dengue is an infection transmitted by mosquitoes and is present in all tropical and subtropical regions of the planet. In recent years, the transmission of the disease has increased, predominantly in urban and semi-urban areas, and has become an important public health problem. The National Health Institute (Instituto Nacional de Salud-INS) determined Cali to be the municipality with the most cases of dengue in Colombia. According to the INS, up to epidemiological week 18 (April 28 to May 4, 2013) 5 134 cases of dengue -and 171 cases of severe dengue- have been reported. This study presents a description of the Ross-Macdonald model, and qualitative analysis of this model, and an analysis of the sensitivity of the model to changes in its parameters. Based on the adjustment of the model obtained for cases that occurred in 2010, simulations of possible scenarios of epidemic outbreaks in the city of Cali are created and analyzed.

Optimal Strategies for Dengue Prevention and Control during Daily Commuting between Two Residential Areas

“…Processes 2019, 7, 197 9 of 24 which stand for the basic reproductive numbers corresponding to the traditional Ross-Macdonald model for a single patch [5,6]). The latter also stays in line with the results of previous studies [7,9], where a two-patch dengue transmission model with additional compartments of "Exposed-Recovered" human hosts and "Exposed" vectors (known as SEIR(S)-SEI type and containing 14 state variables) was proposed and analyzed.…”

“…Numerical values of parameters for the optimal control problem formulated in the previous section are given in Table 3. The greater part of these values are borrowed from published papers [5,6,9] dealing with dengue epidemic studies conducted in the city of Cali and its suburbs. Some parameter values have been assumed or estimated.…”

“…Knowing that dengue epidemics in Cali and its suburbs usually lasts for 1-3 months [5,6,9], the observation period T > 0 was set to 30 days.…”

Factores asociados a la infestación domiciliaria por Aedes aegypti en el corregimiento el Manzanillo, municipio de Itagüí (Antioquia) año 2015

“…Más de 2500 millones de personas están en riesgo de contraerla, anualmente se infectan entre 80 y 100 millones, se hospitalizan 500 mil, fallecen 25 mil personas y es la décima causa de muerte debida a enfermedades infecciosas [5]. En los últimos 50 años, su incidencia ha aumentado 30 veces con la creciente expansión geográfica hacia nuevos países y de áreas urbanas a rurales [6].…”

Un Modelo Computacional de la Transmisión del Dengue por Autómatas Celulares

“…Entre los estudios realizados se ha escogido algunos de diferentes países que afrontan esta problemática de la transmisión de enfermedades por mosquitos, de forma particular el Dengue. El trabajo de María Kuno donde realiza un estudio detallado para Bolivia [6], el trabajo de Sepúlveda-Salcedo [13] y Medina [10] para el caso de Colombia y para el caso del Perú se tiene el trabajo de Roxana López [7] y César Cabezas [1]. Todos excelentes trabajos sobre el Dengue desde de un punto de vista matemático y epidemiológico.…”