The characteristics of planar defects (no loss of material volume) that arise during industrial plant operation are difficult to predict in detail, yet these can affect the performance of non-destructive testing (NDT) used to manage plant structural integrity. Inspection modelling is
increasingly used to design and assess ultrasonic inspections of such plant items. While modelling of smooth planar defects is relatively mature and validated, issues have remained in the treatment of rough planar defect species. The qualification of ultrasonic inspections for such defects
is presently very conservative, owing to the uncertainty of the amplitudes of rough surface reflections. Pragmatic solutions include the addition of large sensitivity thresholds and more frequent inspection intervals, which require more plant downtime. In this article, an alternative approach
has been developed by the authors to predict the expected surface reflection from a rough defect using a theoretical statistical model. Given only the frequency, angle of incidence and two statistical parameter values used to characterise the defects, the expected reflection amplitude is obtained
rapidly for any scattering angle and size of defect, for both compression and shear waves. The method is applicable for inspections of isotropic media that feature surface reflections such as pulse-echo or pitch-catch, rather than for tip signal-dependent techniques such as time-of-flight
diffraction. The potential impact for inspection qualification is significant, with the new model predicting increases of up to 20 dB in signal amplitude in comparison with models presently used in industry. All mode conversions are included and rigorous validations using numerical and experimental
methods have been performed. The model has been instrumental in obtaining new statistically significant results related to the effect of tilt; the expected pulse-echo backscattered amplitude for very rough planar defects is independent of tilt angle, with convergence obtained for a range of
frequencies.