Rule-Based Filtering of Risk Scenarios by the Disruption of Management Priorities

Abstract

This thesis develops a rule-based approach to filtering of the risk scenarios that most disrupt current agency or organizational priorities. The approach is demonstrated in priority-setting for the electric power sector of Afghanistan. Various scenarios are shown to relatively influence the prioritization of capacity-building initiatives for electric power. The effort extends existing methodologies for disruption of priorities with scenario-based I am grateful to the various individuals and organizations that have supported me throughout the pursuit of this degree and my time at the University of Virginia. First, I would like to thank my advisor, Professor James H. Lambert, for his continuous guidance and support that started even before my arrival in Charlottesville. I am grateful to my other committee members, Professor Yacov Y. Haimes and Professor Cody H. Fleming, for their help and guidance during the preparation of this thesis. I would especially like to thank Professor Haimes for his two courses on risk analysis and the art and science of modeling, that have shaped my understanding of systems engineering. I am grateful to Major David Wilson of CSTC-A, John Cardenas of USAID, Shane Hirshi and Igor Linkov of USACE, among others, for their inputs and enabling the realization of this research. I am grateful to the US Department of State and the Icelandic Fulbright Commission for their support of my studies, and for enriching my career through connections to Fulbrighters from all across the world. I am grateful to my family and friends in Iceland for their unquestioned support and understanding, and my friends and colleagues at UVa, who have made Charlottesville my home for the past years. Finally, I would like to dedicate this thesis to my grandparents, Þór and Ragnhildur, whose influence and inspiration will continue to guide me throughout my life and career.