Runoff sensitivity to climate change in the Nile River Basin

Hasan, Emad; Tarhule, Aondover; Kirstetter, Pierre‐Emmanuel; Clark, Race; Hong, Yang

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.04.004

Cited by 59 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…The PAWS index has utilized to develop the first-order estimates of possible water scarcity levels due to projected climate change and population growth in Africa. A 10% decrease in future water resources, which is within the range of several climate projections for some countries [64], is developed for future population growth of years 2025 and 2050. Figure 6 shows that total water resources availability in the year 2025 leads to ~100% increase in the number of countries experiencing water scarcity, from five to ten countries.…”

Section: Comparison Of Iws Irwr Paws and Wsimentioning

confidence: 96%

Assessment of Physical Water Scarcity in Africa Using GRACE and TRMM Satellite Data

et al. 2019

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The critical role of water in enabling or constraining human well-being and socioeconomic activities has led to an interest in quantitatively establishing the status of water (in)sufficiency over space and time. Falkenmark introduced the first widely accepted measure of water status, the Water Scarcity Index (WSI), which expressed the status of the availability of water resources in terms of vulnerability, stress, and scarcity. Since then, numerous indicators have been introduced, but nearly all adopt the same basic formulation; water status is a function of “available water” resource—by the demand or use. However, the accurate assessment of “available water” is difficult, especially in data-scarce regions, such as Africa. In this paper, therefore, we introduce a satellite-based Potential Available Water Storage indicator, PAWS. The method integrates GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) satellite Total Water Storage (TWS) measurements with the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation estimates between 2002 and 2016. First, we derived the countries’ Internal Water Storage (IWS) using GRACE and TRMM precipitation data. Then, the IWS was divided by the population density to derive the PAWS per capita. Following the Falkenmark thresholds, 54% of countries are classified in the same water vulnerability status as the AQUASTAT Internal Renewable Water Resources (IRWR) method. Of the remaining countries, PAWS index leads to one or two categories shift (left or right) of water status. The PAWS index shows that 14% (~160 million people) of Africa’s population currently live under water scarcity status. With respect to future projections, PAWS index suggests that a 10% decrease in future water resources would affect ~37% of Africa’s 2025 population (~600 million people), and 57% for 2050 projections (~1.4-billion people). The proposed approach largely overcomes the constraints related to the data needed to rapidly and robustly estimate available water resources by incorporating all stocks of water within the country, as well as underscores the recent water storage dynamics. However, the estimates obtained concern potential available water resources, which may not be utilizable for practical, economic, and technological issues.

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Section: Comparison Of Iws Irwr Paws and Wsimentioning

confidence: 96%

Assessment of Physical Water Scarcity in Africa Using GRACE and TRMM Satellite Data

et al. 2019

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“…For responding to the effects of climate change, and simultaneously satisfy environmental, societal, and economic, the implementation of environment friendly techniques policies in Romania have been studied [44]. The research found that a 10% decrease in precipitation may cause a decrease in streamflow of between 19% in the tropical zone and 30% in the arid zone in Africa [45]. Climate change may contribute 26%-31% of streamflow decline relative to the base period in Beichuan river basin of China [46].…”

Section: Impact Of Climate Change and Human Activities On Streamflowmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying the Impacts of Climate Change, Coal Mining and Soil and Water Conservation on Streamflow in a Coal Mining Concentrated Watershed on the Loess Plateau, China

Guo

Han

Yang

et al. 2019

Water

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The streamflow has declined significantly in the coal mining concentrated watershed of the Loess Plateau, China, since the 1970s. Quantifying the impact of climate change, coal mining and soil and water conservation (SWC), which are mainly human activities, on streamflow is essential not only for understanding the mechanism of hydrological response, but also for water resource management in the catchment. In this study, the trend of annual streamflow series by Mann-Kendall test has been analyzed, and years showing abrupt changes have been detected using the cumulative anomaly curves and Pettitt test. The contribution of climate change, coal mining and SWC on streamflow has been separated with the monthly water-balance model (MWBM) and field investigation. The results showed: (1) The streamflow had an statistically significant downward trend during 1955–2013; (2) The two break points were in 1979 and 1996; (3) Relative to the baseline period, i.e., 1955–1978, the mean annual streamflow reduction in 1979–1996 was mainly affected by climate change, which was responsible for a decreased annual streamflow of 12.70 mm, for 70.95%, while coal mining and SWC resulted in a runoff reduction of 2.15 mm, 12.01% and 3.05mm, 17.04%, respectively; (4) In a recent period, i.e., 1997–2013, the impact of coal mining on streamflow reduction was dominant, reaching 29.88 mm, 54.24%. At the same time, the declining mean annual streamflow induced through climate change and SWC were 13.01 mm, 23.62% and 12.20 mm, 22.14%, respectively.

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“…In contrast, the reference evapotranspiration (PET) grades in the opposite direction, increasing from 1,100 mm/yr in the tropical and subtropical zones to over 3,000 mm/yr. in the semiarid and arid zones as land surface temperature rises [48,[54][55][56]. This potentially leads to a relatively low runoff rates in the basin; the average water flow is about 0.98 L/s/Km2 [57][58][59] In terms of the human and political geography, the NRB comprises 11 countries with a total population of nearly 400 million (2012; [60]).…”

Section: Nile River Basinmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trend Dynamics of GRACE Terrestrial Water Storage in the Nile River Basin

Hasan¹,

Tarhule²

2019

Preprint

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GRACE-derived Terrestrial Water Storage Anomalies (TWSA) continue to be used in an expanding array of studies to analyze numerous processes and phenomena related to terrestrial water storage dynamics, including groundwater depletions, lake storage variations, snow, and glacial mass changes, as well as floods, droughts, among others. So far, however, few studies have investigated how the factors that affect total water storage (e.g., precipitation, runoff, soil moisture, evapotranspiration) interact and combine over space and time to produce the mass variations that GRACE detects. This paper is an attempt to fill that gap and stimulate needed research in this area. Using the Nile River Basin as case study, it explicitly analyzes nine hydroclimatic and anthropogenic processes, as well as their relationship to TWS in different climatic zones in the Nile River Basin. The analytic method employed the trends in both the dependent and independent variables applying two geographically multiple regression (GMR) approaches: (i) an unweighted or ordinary least square regression (OLS) model in which the contributions of all variables to TWS variability are deemed equal at all locations; and (ii) a geographically weighted regression (GWR) which assigns a weight to each variable at different locations based on the occurrence of trend clusters, determined by Moran’s cluster index. In both cases, model efficacy was investigated using standard goodness of fit diagnostics. The OLS showed that trends in five variables (i.e., precipitation, runoff, surface water soil moisture, and population density) significantly (p<0.0001) explain the trends in TWSA for the basin at large. However, the models R2 value is only 0.14. In contrast, the GWR produced R2 values ranging between 0.40 and 0.89, with an average of 0.86 and normally distributed standard residuals. The models retained in the GWR differ by climatic zone. The results showed that all nine variables contribute significantly to the trend in TWS in the Tropical region; population density is an important contributor to TWSA variability in all zones; ET and Population density are the only significant variables in the semiarid zone. This type of information is critical for developing robust statistical models for reconstructing time series of proxy GRACE anomalies that predate the launch of the GRACE mission and for gap-filling between GRACE and GRACE-FO.

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Runoff sensitivity to climate change in the Nile River Basin

Cited by 59 publications

References 24 publications

Assessment of Physical Water Scarcity in Africa Using GRACE and TRMM Satellite Data

Assessment of Physical Water Scarcity in Africa Using GRACE and TRMM Satellite Data

Quantifying the Impacts of Climate Change, Coal Mining and Soil and Water Conservation on Streamflow in a Coal Mining Concentrated Watershed on the Loess Plateau, China

Trend Dynamics of GRACE Terrestrial Water Storage in the Nile River Basin

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