Rural Policies and Poverty in Tanzania: An Agricultural Household Model-Based Assessment

Abstract

Abstract:The main objective of this study is to develop a robust and comprehensive tool to evaluate the effect on households' welfare of different agricultural policies in Tanzania. This is done through a non-separable agricultural household model where production and consumption decisions are considered. In particular, we look at labour market failure, since this is among the major constraints in a context like rural Tanzania. Nonseparability implies that production and consumption decisions are interlinked and that labour allocation is likely to be determined by shadow wages rather than market wages. A two-stage estimation strategy is adopted: the shadow price of family labour is first estimated and then included into the production and demand systems. The impact of a number of agricultural policies on poverty is then estimated. In particular, we evaluate the impact of policies established by the Agricultural Sector Development Programme, as well as changes in food prices.