Rural population change in Nova Scotia, 1991–2001: bivariate and multivariate analysis of key drivers

Abstract

Depopulation is a major demographic and economic issue in Nova Scotia, as it is in many of Canada's hinterland areas. Indian Reserves excepted, two‐thirds of rural census subdivisions declined in population between 1991 and 2001, and this decline has serious economic and social consequences. By contrast, a small minority of seemingly ‘rural’ areas is experiencing excessive population growth through exurbanisation. This article combines map and graph analysis with simple regression and multivariate techniques to analyse the key drivers of recent population change. It is shown that such change is strongly and predictably related to unemployment rate, income and population density and moderately related to resource‐industry employment, proximity to a major urban centre and commuting. These six variables are interrelated, however, and their separate contributions are explored through principal component analysis and multiple regression. Two variables—resource‐industry employment and urban proximity—are identified as key root causes, indicative of separate factors. Findings are related to the Drudy–Gilg model of rural decline, and their policy implications are briefly discussed.

Economic Diversity and Regional Socioeconomic Performance: An Empirical Analysis of the Western Australian Grain Belt

“…These were: population growth; median household income growth; change in the labour force participation rate and; labour force growth. These variables, while being valuable measures of socio‐economic performance in their own right, have also been identified as closely tied to a range of other socio‐economic conditions, such as poverty, employment opportunities, and economic activity (Mencken and Singelman, 1998; Dissart, 2003; Feser and Sweeney, 2003; Millward, 2005).…”

“…We are, however, cautious about the issue of both causality and the influence of other variables. In terms of the latter, the literature suggests that processes other than diversity can affect all of our measures of socio‐economic performance (Mencken and Singelman, 1998; Millward, 2005). While it would also have been useful to include other variables, such as population size or dependence on agriculture and mining, given the sample size this would have resulted in an excessive number of variables in the regression model.…”

“…At the heart of much of this work has been a focus on the relationship between economic diversity and a range of socio‐economic indicators. These indicators have included employment stability, relative household and individual incomes, and population dynamics (Bascom and Gordon, 1999; Millward, 2005; Walford, 2005; Albrecht and Albrecht, 2009). The bulk of this research, much of it conducted in North America and Europe, suggests that areas with a narrow economic base are more prone to economic volatility, decline and marginalisation than are more diverse economies (Archer and Lonsdale, 1997).…”

Shaping the Rural–Urban Symbiosis: Density, Dispersal, Remoteness, and Town Size in South‐East Australia

“…The literature related to the measurement, impact and importance of population density in the rural settlement of developed countries has been reviewed by Smailes, Argent, and Griffin (2002). More recently, Muilu and Rusanen (2004) traced the links between density and changes in the sectoral composition of Finland's rural workforce; Millward (2005) found a relationship between rural density and the rate of population change in Nova Scotia; Argent, Smailes, and Griffin (2006) investigated factors that generate variation in rural density; Adolphson (2010), following others, developed a kernel density surface to examine the relation between density and functional complexity in a Swedish peri‐metropolitan setting; Schuurman, Bérubé, and Crooks (2010) found that kernel density was not a satisfactory measure of accessibility to primary health care; while a tendency to conflate density and remoteness measures (Zhao and Guthridge 2008) has been noted by Holmes (2009).…”

Functional specialisation and socio-economic factors in population change: A clustering study in non-metropolitan Australia

“…Some authors have also mentioned the lack of educational opportunities and the need to access tertiary education as causal factors (Alston, 2004; Henkel, 1994; Holmes et al, 2005; Stockdale, 2002) as many young people in Australian small towns must relocate to access higher education. Among the reasons identified for out-migration are employment (Millward, 2005), declining employment in agriculture and other resource-based industries (McGranahan and Beale, 2002), and viability of job opportunities (Muilu and Rusanen, 2003). Expected income (Todaro, 1969) and household income (Millward, 2005) have also been identified.…”