Russia in a Post-Bipolar World

Lukin, Alexander

doi:10.1080/00396338.2016.1142141

Cited by 21 publications

(13 citation statements)

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“…Also Arbatov () blames the unilateral attitude of the US: ‘The US suddenly saw itself as ‘the only superpower in the world … The US treated Russia as if it were a loser country’. Lukin (, p. 98), another Russian observer, agrees: ‘The post‐Soviet consensus between the West and Russia was based on at least a Russian understanding that both sides would move towards closer cooperation, respect each other's interests and make mutually acceptable compromises. Yet, only Russia followed this understanding in practical terms’.…”

Section: Changing Expectations By Russiamentioning

confidence: 99%

The Origins of the Ukraine Crisis and the Need for Collective Security between Russia and the West

Sauer

2016

Global Policy

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The relationship between major powers in the world determines the level of global stability. Two constellations are imaginable: balance of power and collective security. The end of major (world or cold) wars offers possibilities for change from one constellation to another. This article tries to explain the origins of the Ukraine crisis. It posits that the crisis in Ukraine is only a symptom of a wider conflict between two major powers (or power blocs), whose origins can only be understood by assessing the post-Cold War security architecture in Europe. Instead of having integrated Russia in a collective security organization on an equal level, the West kept NATO alive and by doing so deteriorated the relationship with Russia. Despite different warnings from Moscow, NATO invited Ukraine to become member, and the EU offered Trade and Association Agreement talks to Ukraine. As a result, the relationship glided back towards a classic balance of power relation with spheres of influences. To prevent similar conflicts in the future, Russia should be integrated into the Euro-Atlantic security architecture. Ideally, the existing collective defence organization (NATO) should be transformed into a collective security organization with the inclusion of both Russia and Ukraine. Policy Implications• The way how the 'losers' of a (cold) war are treated determines the stability in the aftermath. The international community did well after 1815 and 1945, but failed miserably after 1918. The argument of this article is that also after 1989 the West missed an opportunity to integrate Russia into the Euro-Atlantic security architecture (on an equal basis). The end of (cold) wars are perfect times for trying to move from one great power constellation to another (e.g. from pure balance of power to collective security).• Collective defence organizations (= alliances) are inherently unstable as they are constantly looking for an external enemy. This article argues that NATO's prolonged life after the Cold War is not normal, and contributed to the crisis with Russia (by extending NATO to the East, incl. plans to include Georgia and Ukraine). Collective security organizations (like the UN) are more stable.

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Section: Changing Expectations By Russiamentioning

confidence: 99%

The Origins of the Ukraine Crisis and the Need for Collective Security between Russia and the West

Sauer

2016

Global Policy

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“…In general, they also became more sceptical of the Western strategy of incorporating the rest of the world into a value system presented as being universal. Under Putin, for instance, Russia-particularly since the 2014 annexation of Crimea-has steadfastly refused to "follow the West" (Lukin 2016).…”

Section: Multipolarisation Of the World Ordermentioning

confidence: 99%

UN Peacekeeping in a Multipolar World Order: Norms, Role Expectations, and Leadership

Abdenur¹

2018

United Nations Peace Operations in a Changing Global Order

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Shortly after Donald Trump was elected President, in November 2016, US government representatives announced that the US would significantly cut back on its financial contributions to the UN. In addition, the new administration pledged to pressure the UN to reduce its peacekeeping budget, for instance by closing a number of missions and undertaking a comprehensive review of peace operations (Lynch 2017). The announcements provoked alarm due not only to the financial and political implications, but also because of the repercussions to the internal politics of the US. In mid-2017, this foreshadowing became concrete when, under pressure from the US, the General Assembly agreed to significant cuts to the peacekeeping budget. American Ambassador Nikki Haley gloated that the US, in seeking "more bang for its buck," was trimming the "fat around the edges" of the UN security budget (Haynes 2017).

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“…At present, Latvia benefits from increased physical presence of NATO forces within Latvia (Bruge 2015, Vitkus 2015, Partschefeld 2015, Braw 2015, Kara-Murza 2015, Fruhling and Lasconjarias 2016, Clem 2016. However, some contend that the NATO presence is largely to blame for Latvian tensions with Russia (Pifer et al 2015, Lukin 2015, Charap and Shapiro 2016, Arbatova and Dynkin 2016, and some doubt whether NATO would actually respond if Russia were to launch some form of military activity in the Baltic States (Braw 2015, Kroenig 2015, Clem 2016.…”

Section: Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

“…One of the primary discussions in the current literature focuses on whether EU and NATO membership would even benefit Georgia and Moldova. Some argue that membership would certainly benefit Georgia and Moldova, primarily because membership helps distance these states from Russia (Pifer et al 2015, Fruhling and Lasconjarias 2016, Paszewski 2016, Fiott 2016, although others argue that these states are much better off without the EU or NATO (Crocker 2015, Lukin 2015, Pifer et al 2015, Makarychev 2015, Kazharski and Makarychev 2015, Paenke 2015, Vilson 2015, Arbatova and Dynkin 2016. The argument against EU and NATO membership stems, in part, from the perception that the EU and NATO do not really want to expand but are dangling the carrot of membership in front of Georgia and Moldova simply to stabilize and democratize the region: not because they actually intend to expand (Boedeltje and van Houtum 2011, Dimitrovova 2012, Joenniemi 2012, Cottey 2012, Bechev 2015, Buscaneanu 2015, Dragan 2015.…”

Section: Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

Does Latvia Matter in Regional Geopolitics?

Lamoreaux

Dyerly

2018

Journal on Baltic Security

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As early as 1994, scholars, analysts and policymakers began to wonder the extent to which the Baltic States mattered in the relationship between Russia and the West. The general consensus for the following 20 years was that the Baltic States matter considerably, especially following their inclusion in both the EU and NATO in 2004. However, in the past few years two trends have emerged which begin to call this accepted knowledge into question. First, the relationship between Russia and the West has turned more hostile following nearly 20 years of detente. The West insists (especially NATO) insists that it is within its right to protect states that were formerly part of the Soviet Union/Russia’s “near abroad”. Russia, on the other hand, insists that NATO incursion into the “shared neighborhood” is a violation of trust and overstepping normal geopolitical bounds.Second, the Baltic States who once presented something of a united front for the West against Russia, no longer appear to have a common approach to foreign policy. While Estonia leans toward Scandinavia, and Lithuania leans toward Poland and Ukraine, Latvia is a bit of an odd man out with nowhere to turn. Furthermore, even other states in the Shared Neighborhood no longer seem to see Latvia as a valuable ally within the West. Considering this state of affairs, this paper considers whether Latvia matters anymore in regional geopolitics, or whether they are losing relevance.

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Russia in a Post-Bipolar World

Cited by 21 publications

References 0 publications

The Origins of the Ukraine Crisis and the Need for Collective Security between Russia and the West

The Origins of the Ukraine Crisis and the Need for Collective Security between Russia and the West

UN Peacekeeping in a Multipolar World Order: Norms, Role Expectations, and Leadership

Does Latvia Matter in Regional Geopolitics?

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