Russian Hydropower under the Global Climate Change

Increase of Energy Potential of Russian Forest resources due to Climate Change and CO2 Fertilization

“…According to our recent study [ 16] the precipitation change in Russia in our baseline scenario is estimated as increasing at 5-10% relative to the modern averages. The model simulations forecast more humid climate in the eastern part of the country and in the North-West of European part (up to 10% increase in the annual precipitation), less pronounced changes in the central regions (5-10%) and minor changes (or even some aridification) in the southern regions of European part.…”

“…Thus, in general, assuming the same areas of wood harvest, the total national wood production is expected to rise in 2050 by some 30% compared to the recent decades due to an elevated net primary production of forests. Consequently, due to persistent and anticipated climatic changes the available primary energy wood resources by mid-century would increase by more than 9 Mtce that considerably exceeds the climatic impacts on other sectors of energy production -both negative for thermal and nuclear power plants (due to expected reduction of thermal cycle efficiency, which will result in additional fuel consumption of 4.3 Mtce/year [ 19]), and positive for hydropower generation (probable growth up to 4%, or 7-8 TWh/year, which is equivalent to the reduction of fossil fuel consumption by 2.5 Mtce/year [ 16,19]).…”