Russian military forecasting and the revolution in military affairs: A case of the oracle of Delphi or Dassandra?*

Russian nuclear strategy and conventional inferiority

“…75 Other strategists pushed back against this idea, arguing that a lowered nuclear threshold would not enhance credibility, and worrying that nuclear escalation could not be controlled. 76 Some argued that strategic nuclear weapons could do the job of deterring also these types of wars. But the idea that sub-strategic nuclear weapons could help manage the escalation of regional war was established in the Russian strategic discourse.…”

The Russian Military Today and Tomorrow: Essays in Memory of Mary Fitzgerald

“…To some degree, this descended from Putin's own speeches in 2006-07 that reflected his acceptance of their recommendations and their own contribution to those ongoing parallel processes. 123 Press accounts make clear that threat assessment was a big issue in 2007. In January 2007, i.e., before Putin's blistering speech to the Munich Security Conference in February 2007, Sergei Ivanov, then Minister of Defense, said that in respect of threats to Russian security, the Cold War was paradise compared to now because of its predictability and coherence.…”

“…The campaign put an end to Moscow's assumptions about a strategic partnership and raised the importance of the issue of future war for the Russian political elite. 123 With the rise of Valdimir Putin, defense became a priority and defining the nature of the future conflicts for which Russian forces would have to prepare became an immediate and salient issue. NATO's intervention in Yugoslavia in the form of a noncontact air campaign of compellence, which relied upon precision strike systems, seemed to pose a threat to Russia in case of another war in Chechnya.…”

“…"We hope that the actions being undertaken within the law by the Chinese authorities to maintain public order in Xinjiang will soon help to normalize the situation in that area." 123 Both the Russian and the Chinese governments have expressed concern about the efforts by the United States and its allies to strengthen their BMD capabilities. In December 2008, for instance, Russian Defense Minister Anatoliy Serdyukov said that he had discussed the missile defense issue when he met with Chinese Defense Minister Liang Guanglie in Beijing.…”