Russian Rivers Streamflow Forecasting Using Hydrograph Extrapolation Method

Abstract

This paper presents a method of hydrograph extrapolation, intended for simple and efficient streamflow forecasting with up to 10 days lead time. The forecast of discharges or water levels is expressed by a linear formula depending on their values on the date of the forecast release and the five previous days. Such forecast techniques were developed for more than 2700 stream gauging stations across Russia. Forecast verification has shown that this method can be successfully applied to large rivers with a smooth shape of hydrographs, while for small mountain catchments, the accuracy of the method tends to be lower. The method has been implemented into real-time continuous operations in the Hydrometcentre of Russia. In the territory of Russia, 18 regions have been identified with a single dependency of the maximum lead time of good forecasts on the area and average slope of the catchment surface for different catchments of each region; the possibilities of forecasting river streamflow by the method of hydrograph extrapolation are approximately estimated. The proposed method can be considered as a first approximation while solving the problem of forecasting river flow in conditions of a lack of meteorological information or when it is necessary to quickly develop a forecasting system for a large number of catchments.

Runoff of Water and Its Quality under the Combined Impact of Agricultural Activities and Urban Development in a Small River Basin

“…The thus-far-accumulated experience in the study and assessment of sedimentation in the floodplains of rivers in Western Europe [24][25][26], Ukraine [27][28][29][30], Russia [31][32][33][34], Asia [35,36], the USA [37,38], and Australia [39] presents a considerable range of methods and technologies. In addition, the effectiveness of the concept of a joint erosionsedimentation process [40]-according to which the entire set of watercourses, from temporary slope watercourses to large rivers, is an interconnected system-is gaining increasing recognition.…”

Long-Term Variability of the Hydrological Regime and Its Response to Climate Warming in the Zhizdra River Basin of the Eastern European Plain

“…With relatively low human activity in the basin, it provides an excellent opportunity to investigate the impact of climate change on runoff. Understanding the current climate change's effects on water resources is crucial for effective water management measures in Russia [26,27]. The objectives of this study were to: (1) examine the long-term variability of the hydrological regime in the Zhizdra River Basin from 1958 to 2016; (2) quantify the contribution of predominant climate factors to runoff changes using the Choudhury-Yang equation based on the Budyko hypothesis; and (3) assess the effects of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration on runoff in different seasons.…”