Russian summer tops 'universal' heatwave index

Hoag, Hannah

doi:10.1038/nature.2014.16250

Cited by 34 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 2 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…This analysis takes advantage of the state-of-the-art technique developed in heat wave (Hoag, 2014) and cold wave (Forzieri et al, 2015) assessment. This analysis gives a perspective on cold waves, which have been rarely studied.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Recently, Russo et al (2014) have introduced the HWMI able to overcome the limitation above by merging a few climate measures, as duration and temperature anomalies, into a single numerical index (Hoag, 2014). Basically, the magnitude index sums the probability scores associated to consecutive daily temperatures above a threshold (for further details see Russo et al, 2014).…”

Section: The Heat and Cold Wave Magnitude Indicesmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Magnitude and frequency of heat and cold waves in recent decades: the case of South America

Ceccherini

Russo

Ameztoy

et al. 2016

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. In recent decades there has been an increase in magnitude and occurrence of heat waves and a decrease of cold waves, both of which may be related to the anthropogenic influence. This study describes the extreme temperature regime of heat waves and cold waves across South America over recent years . Temperature records come from the Global Surface Summary of the Day (GSOD), a climatological data set produced by the National Climatic Data Center that provides records of daily maximum and minimum temperatures acquired worldwide. The magnitude of heat waves and cold waves for each GSOD station are quantified on an annual basis by means of the Heat Wave Magnitude Index and the Cold Wave Magnitude Index. Results indicate an increase in intensity and in frequency of heat waves, especially in the last 10 years. Conversely, no significant changes are detected for cold waves. In addition, the trend of the annual temperature range (i.e. yearly mean of T max -yearly mean of T min ) is positive -up to 1 • C per decade -over the extratropics and negative -up to 0.5 • C per decade -over the tropics.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: The Heat and Cold Wave Magnitude Indicesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Magnitude and frequency of heat and cold waves in recent decades: the case of South America

Ceccherini

Russo

Ameztoy

et al. 2016

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…This heat wave was the strongest ever recorded over the past 30 years. 28 It caused an estimated 55,000 deaths and caused wildfires, the worst drought over Russia in nearly 40 years and the loss of at least millions hectares of crops.…”

Section: Prediction Of the 2010 Russian Heat Wavementioning

confidence: 99%

The sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction project (S2S) and the prediction of extreme events

Vitart

Robertson²

2018

npj Clim Atmos Sci

284

208

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction project (S2S) is a 5-year project, established in 2013 by the World Weather Research Program (WWRP) and the World Climate Research Program (WCRP). This paper briefly describes the S2S project in the context of extended range prediction of extreme events. We provide evidence that S2S forecasts have the potential to predict the onset, evolution and decay of some large-scale extreme events several weeks ahead. For instance, S2S models displayed skill to predict high probabilities of extreme 2-m temperature anomalies over Russia during the worst week of the 2010 Russian heat wave up to 3 weeks in advance. In other cases, like for tropical cyclone prediction, S2S models can produce useful information on the probability of the occurrence of tropical storms within sufficiently large areas through the prediction of large-scale predictors, such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). In future, S2S forecasts of extreme events could be integrated into a "ready-set-go" framework between seasonal and medium range forecasts, by providing an early warning of an extreme event a few weeks in advance. Finally, S2S forecasts can also be used to investigate the causality of some extreme events and we show evidence that the cold March 2013 over western Europe and North Asia was linked to a MJO event propagating over the western Pacific.

show abstract

“…This problem has been overcome by percentile-based indices (Alexander et al 2006) and by the novel heat wave magnitude index (HWMI, Russo et al 2014) summing up the excess temperatures beyond a certain normalized threshold and merging duration and temperature anomaly of intense heat events into a single number. This enables comparison of heatwaves with different length and peak magnitudes that have occurred in different regions and in different years (Hoag 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Top ten European heatwaves since 1950 and their occurrence in the coming decades

Russo

Sillmann

Fischer

2015

Environ. Res. Lett.

556

519

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The Russian heatwave in 2010 killed tens of thousands of people, and was by far the worst event in Europe since at least 1950, according to recent studies and a novel universal heatwave index capturing both the duration and magnitude of heatwaves. Here, by taking an improved version of this index, namely the heat wave magnitude index daily, we rank the top ten European heatwaves that occurred in the period 1950-2014, and show the spatial distribution of the magnitude of the most recent heatwave in summer 2015. We demonstrate that all these events had a strong impact reported in historical newspapers. We further reveal that the 1972 heatwave in Finland had a comparable spatial extent and magnitude as the European heatwave of 2003, considered the second strongest heatwave of the observational era. In the next two decades (2021-2040), regional climate projections suggest that Europe experiences an enhanced probability for heatwaves comparable to or greater than the magnitude, extent and duration of the Russian heatwave in 2010. We demonstrate that the probability of experiencing a major European heatwave in the coming decades is higher in RCP8.5 than RCP4.5 even though global mean temperature projections do not differ substantially. This calls for a proactive vulnerability assessment in Europe in support of formulating heatwave adaptation strategies to reduce the adverse impacts of heatwaves.

show abstract

Russian summer tops 'universal' heatwave index

Cited by 34 publications

References 2 publications

Magnitude and frequency of heat and cold waves in recent decades: the case of South America

Magnitude and frequency of heat and cold waves in recent decades: the case of South America

The sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction project (S2S) and the prediction of extreme events

Top ten European heatwaves since 1950 and their occurrence in the coming decades

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About