Little is known about arsenic metabolism in diabetes development. We investigated the prospective associations of low-moderate arsenic exposure and arsenic metabolism with diabetes incidence in the Strong Heart Study. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS A total of 1,694 diabetes-free participants aged 45-75 years were recruited in 1989-1991 and followed through 1998-1999. We used the proportions of urine inorganic arsenic (iAs), monomethylarsonate (MMA), and dimethylarsinate (DMA) over their sum (expressed as iAs%, MMA%, and DMA%) as the biomarkers of arsenic metabolism. Diabetes was defined as fasting glucose ‡126 mg/dL, 2-h glucose ‡200 mg/dL, self-reported diabetes history, or self-reported use of antidiabetic medications. RESULTS Over 11,263.2 person-years of follow-up, 396 participants developed diabetes. Using the leave-one-out approach to model the dynamics of arsenic metabolism, we found that lower MMA% was associated with higher diabetes incidence. The hazard ratios (95% CI) of diabetes incidence for a 5% increase in MMA% were 0.77 (0.63-0.93) and 0.82 (0.73-0.92) when iAs% and DMA%, respectively, were left out of the model. DMA% was associated with higher diabetes incidence only when MMA% decreased (left out of the model) but not when iAs% decreased. iAs% was also associated with higher diabetes incidence when MMA% decreased. The association between MMA% and diabetes incidence was similar by age, sex, study site, obesity, and urine iAs concentrations. CONCLUSIONS Arsenic metabolism, particularly lower MMA%, was prospectively associated with increased incidence of diabetes. Research is needed to evaluate whether arsenic metabolism is related to diabetes incidence per se or through its close connections with one-carbon metabolism. Humans are exposed to inorganic arsenic (iAs) through drinking water, food, dust, and ambient air (1). Increasing epidemiologic and experimental evidence supports a role for iAs in the development of diabetes (2,3). At high arsenic levels (.150 mg/L in drinking water), evidence from Taiwan and Bangladesh supports an association with diabetes, although most studies are cross-sectional and concerns exist about the measures of arsenic exposure and definition of diabetes used in some studies (2,4). At low-moderate arsenic levels, evidence from Mexico and the