“S-shaped” curves in economic growth. A theoretical contribution and an application

Jarne, Gloria; Chóliz, Julio Sánchez; Fatás-Villafranca, Francisco

doi:10.14441/eier.3.239

Cited by 23 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…This leads to a relatively short period of rapid expansion and to a relatively long period of gradual growth up to the maximal level. The logistic curve is more symmetric, the growth rate is initially not as high as in the Gompertz curve and it declines more gradually [27].…”

Section: Diffusion Modelsmentioning

confidence: 93%

Modeling and Forecasting the Diffusion of Mobile Telephony in Albania and Turkey

Spaho

Kraja

2019

Journal of Engineering Technology and Applied Sciences

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Mobile telephony has become a main factor driving the social and economic development of a country. This study examines the diffusion process of mobile telephony in Albania and Turkey. The aim of this research is to model and to forecast the diffusion rate of mobile telephony using Logistic and Gompertz models, and World Bank data. The results of estimated models indicated that the Gompertz model fits best with the actual data of mobile telephony in Albania, and the Logistic model fits best with the actual data of mobile telephony in Turkey. According to the results of the Logistic model, the best model for predicting the diffusion rate of mobile telephony in Albania, the maximum level of the mobile diffusion rate of 131.89% will be achieved in the year 2025. The results of the Gompertz model, the best model for predicting the mobile telephony in Turkey indicate that the maximum diffusion rate of 97.98% is predicted to be achieved after the year 2025. These findings are useful to telecommunication operators, policymakers, and customers.

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Section: Diffusion Modelsmentioning

confidence: 93%

Modeling and Forecasting the Diffusion of Mobile Telephony in Albania and Turkey

Spaho

Kraja

2019

Journal of Engineering Technology and Applied Sciences

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“…This condition is compatible with a wide range of evolutions, including exponential and S‐shaped evolutions (see Jarne et al ., ). For our simulations we shall assume, following Metcalfe (), a Gompertz dynamics for the worldwide market size:

\dot{δ} = a {(δ (t) - f)}^{m} {[\ln \frac{c - f}{δ (t) - f}]}^{d}; c > f \geq 0; a, m and d > 0; \forall t \in [0, T]

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confidence: 97%

Stock and Mobility of Researchers and Industrial Leadership

2013

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We propose an evolutionary model which shows the relevance of the stock and mobility of researchers in explaining industrial leadership and catch-up. Likewise, it shows how leading firms and nations may benefit from their competitors' investments in scientific training. On the other hand, international knowledge diffusion may jeopardize apparently solid leadership positions. Thus, under certain conditions, technological convergence at a worldwide level mitigates the migrant-sending role of emergent nations. In fact, taking advantage of knowledge diffusion to make the transition from migrant-sending to migrant-receiving nation proves to be a source of leadership in the model.

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“…This leads to a relatively short period of rapid expansion and to a relatively long period of gradual growth up to the maximal level. The logistic curve is more symmetric -the growth rate (measured asẏ y ) is initially not as high as in the Gompertz curve and it declines more gradually (see [15]). …”

mentioning

confidence: 98%

“…5 The paper [15] provides a pedagogical presentation of Gompertz and logistic equations generalizations and discusses limitations of standard equations in economic modeling.…”

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confidence: 99%

How to Overcome Digital Divide? Determinants of Internet Diffusion

Massenot,

Shchetinin

2008

SSRN Journal

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We document the existence and the persistence of the digital divide and investigate the determinants of the Internet diffusion in both developing and developed countries. Our study innovates on the following: i) we use a data set that covers more countries and years than the earlier studies ii) We use the GMM estimator which requires milder assumptions to be consistent than the traditionally used panel data estimators in technology diffusion studies.We find that i) the digital divide is likely to persist over time, ii) the Internet diffusion process is dynamic which makes static estimators inconsistent, iii) Internet adoption starts later but goes faster in developing countries, iv) inflows of the foreign investment and better human capital boost the diffusion of Internet for the developing countries only and v) GDP per capita has a negative impact on Internet diffusion in the developing countries and a positive impact in developed countries. This last finding seems surprising but it is consistent with the conditional convergence hypothesis as well as with the resource curse theory.

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“S-shaped” curves in economic growth. A theoretical contribution and an application

Cited by 23 publications

References 11 publications

Modeling and Forecasting the Diffusion of Mobile Telephony in Albania and Turkey

Modeling and Forecasting the Diffusion of Mobile Telephony in Albania and Turkey

Stock and Mobility of Researchers and Industrial Leadership

How to Overcome Digital Divide? Determinants of Internet Diffusion

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