Objective
Pediatric early warning systems using expert-derived vital sign parameters demonstrate limited sensitivity and specificity in identifying deterioration. We hypothesized that modified tools using data-driven vital sign parameters would improve the performance of a validated tool.
Design
Retrospective Case Control
Setting
Quaternary-care children’s hospital
Patients
Hospitalized, non-critically ill patients less than 18 years old. Cases were defined as patients who experienced an emergent transfer to an intensive care unit (ICU) or out-of-ICU cardiac arrest. Controls were patients who never required intensive care. Cases and controls were split into training and testing groups.
Intervention
The Bedside Pediatric Early Warning System (bPEWS) was modified by integrating data-driven heart rate and respiratory rate parameters (modified bPEWS 1 and 2). Modified bPEWS 1 used the 10th and 90th percentiles as normal parameters while modified bPEWS 2 used 5th and 95th percentiles.
Measurements and Main Results
The training set consisted of 358 case events and 1830 controls; the testing set had 331 case events and 1215 controls. In the sensitivity analysis, 207 of the 331 testing set cases (62.5%) were predicted by the original tool versus 206 (62.2%, p=0.54) with modified bPEWS 1 and 191 (57.7%, p<0.001) with modified bPEWS 2. For specificity, 1005 of the 1215 testing set control patients (82.7%) were identified by original bPEWS versus 1013 (83.1%, p=0.54) with modified bPEWS 1 and 1055 (86.8%, p<0.001) modified bPEWS 2. There was no net gain in sensitivity and specificity using either of the modified bPEWS tools.
Conclusions
Integration of data-driven vital sign parameters into a validated pediatric early warning system did not significantly impact sensitivity or specificity, and all the tools showed lower than desired sensitivity and specificity at a single cutoff point. Future work is needed to develop an objective tool that can more accurately predict pediatric decompensation.