In adult protease inhibitor (PI)-experienced patients, a lopinavir (LPV) phenotypic inhibitory quotient (PIQ) of >15 has been associated with a higher likelihood of viral suppression. The aims of this study were to develop a population pharmacokinetic (PK) model of LPV in children and to estimate the probability of achieving a PIQ of >15. HIV-infected, PI-experienced children receiving LPV were intensively sampled for 12 h to measure plasma LPV. The data were fitted to candidate PK models (using MM-USCPACK software), and the final model was used to simulate 1,000 children to determine the probability of achieving an LPV PIQ of >15. In 50 patients (4 to 18 years old), the median LPV plasma 12-hour-postdose concentration was 5.9 mg/liter (range, 0.03 to 16.2 mg/liter) lower than that reported in adults. After a delay, LPV was absorbed linearly into a central compartment whose size was dependent on the weight and age of the patient. Elimination was dependent on weight. The regression line of observed versus predicted LPV had an R 2 of 0.99 and a slope of 1.0. Visual predictive checks against all available measured concentrations showed good predictive ability of the model. The probability of achieving an LPV PIQ of >15 was >90% for wild-type virus but <10% for even moderately resistant virus. The currently recommended dose of LPV/ritonavir appears to be adequate for children infected with wild-type virus but is unlikely to provide adequate inhibitory concentrations for even moderately resistant human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). PI-experienced HIV-infected children will likely benefit from longitudinal, repeated LPV measurement in plasma to ensure that drug exposure is most often near the maximal end of the observed safe range.Lopinavir/ritonavir (LPV/RTV) (Kaletra) is the first and only coformulated RTV-boosted protease inhibitor (PI) approved for use in children. The recommended doses for children who weigh more than 15 kg are 10 mg/kg of body weight or 230 mg/m 2 (body surface area) twice daily, with a maximum of 400 mg per dose unless it is combined with drugs affecting cytochrome (CYP) P450 metabolism, which require LPV dose adjustment (4, 28). Introduced as a salvage agent (22), LPV/RTV has become one of the preferred PI choices for first-line regimens in children Ͼ6 months of age in the countries with access to the drug.Despite evidence for good antiviral efficacy among children in a clinical trial setting (16,17,23), the standard dose may not be adequate for every child. Noncompartmental analysis has shown that the average LPV plasma 12-hour-postdose concentration (C trough ) in children given the currently recommended pediatric dose of LPV is 67% lower than in adults (24). Recently, Jullien et al. published a population pharmacokinetics (PK) model of LPV in children aged 0 to 18 years (15). The model was based on a retrospective analysis of LPV plasma measurements in 157 children, with a median of 3 samples (range, 1 to 14) per patient, obtained for monitoring purposes after self-reported LPV intake. In t...