Background: Tuberculosis (TB) is preventable and curable but eliminating it has proven challenging. Safe and effective TB vaccines that can rapidly reduce disease burden are essential for achieving TB elimination. We assessed future costs, cost-savings, and cost-effectiveness of introducing novel TB vaccines in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) for a range of product characteristics and delivery strategies.
Methods: We developed a system of epidemiological and economic models, calibrated to demographic, epidemiological, and health service data in 105 LMICs. For each country, we assessed the likely future course of TB-related outcomes under several vaccine introduction scenarios, compared to a 'no-new-vaccine' counterfactual. We estimated the incremental impact of vaccine introduction for a range of health and economic outcomes. In the base-case, we assumed a vaccine price of $4.60, and used a 1x per-capita GDP cost-effectiveness threshold (both varied in sensitivity analyses).
Findings: Vaccine introduction was estimated to require substantial near-term resources, offset by future cost-savings from averted TB burden. From a health system perspective, vaccination was cost-effective in 65 of 105 LMICs. From a societal perspective (including productivity gains and averted patient costs), vaccination was projected to be cost-effective in 75 of 105 LMICs and cost-saving in 57 of 105 LMICs, including 96% of countries with higher TB burden. When considering the monetized value of health gains, we estimated that introduction of an adolescent/adult vaccine could produce $258-447 billion in economic benefits by 2050.
Interpretation: TB vaccination would be highly impactful and cost-effective in most LMICs.