Safety and risk prediction of port oil piping transportation system impacted by climate-weather change process

Kołowrocki, K.; Kuligowska, E.; Soszyńska-Budny, J.; Torbicki, M.

doi:10.1109/dt.2017.8024292

Cited by 6 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 2 publications

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“…Existing models for forecasting in the safety analysis of maritime infrastructures, e.g. referenced in [17,45], are planned for real-case application. Expanding the model introduced in this paper to include inland water bodies will not only improve water system safety models [46] but also allow adaptation to various environments, enhancing critical infrastructure operations by integrating variable hydrometeorological conditions, e.g.…”

Section: Adaptive Strategies Within Integrated Coastal Zone Managementmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…[18,47]. To effectively combat pollution, adaptation strategies must be tailored to fluctuating hydro-meteorological conditions [17,45]. Weather forecasts play a crucial role in anticipating the dispersion patterns of pollutants, enabling proactive measures such as adjusting waste management practices accordingly.…”

Section: Adaptive Strategies Within Integrated Coastal Zone Managementmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Forecast of Hydro–Meteorological Changes in Southern Baltic Sea

Dąbrowska,

Torbicki

2024

Water

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This paper presents a comprehensive approach to forecasting hydro–meteorological changes in a marine area, i.e., in large bodies of water, from open water to coastal zones. First, hydro–meteorological factors, their interactions, and their implications for marine ecosystems are described. In addition, an analysis is outlined specifically for the Baltic Sea area. Next, the procedure for forecasting expected changes in major hydro–meteorological parameters in the sea is presented and a series of steps is accurately described. An extensive prognosis is provided for the southern Baltic Sea region using historical data obtained from the Polish National Institute of Water Management and Meteorology. The procedure is applied for seven measurement points which were assigned to four sub-areas for examining trends in wind regimes and wave height patterns using the authors’ own written software and statistical methods for data analysis. The model was validated within the southern Baltic Sea region. This paper also highlights the significance of forecasting for human beings, the environment, and critical infrastructure by proposing adaptive strategies and integrated coastal zone management in mitigating risks and enhancing resilience. Finally, future directions for research are proposed.

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Section: Adaptive Strategies Within Integrated Coastal Zone Managementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Adaptive Strategies Within Integrated Coastal Zone Managementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecast of Hydro–Meteorological Changes in Southern Baltic Sea

Dąbrowska,

Torbicki

2024

Water

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“…Using the semi-Markov model [41,42], to mathematically model the process A(t), t ∈ 0, T , of varying hydro-meteorological (h-m) conditions during time T, T > 0, the necessary assumptions and denotations are presented in Figure 3 [43][44][45][46].…”

Section: Definitionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The uniformity testing procedure for the process of varying h-m conditions data, including realisation from different experiments or the datasets, is presented, e.g., in [42]. In the aforementioned work, the methods for estimating the probabilities of the initial process states (from Table 1), the probabilities of transitions between these states, and the distributions of the process's sojourn times are discussed [17,18,[40][41][42][44][45][46][47][48] and should be firstly applied.…”

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confidence: 99%

Oil Discharge Trajectory Simulation at Selected Baltic Sea Waterway under Variability of Hydro-Meteorological Conditions

Dąbrowska

2023

Water

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The paper deals with an important issue related to the identification, modelling, and prediction of environmental pollution in aquatic ecosystems of the Baltic Sea caused by anthropopressure. Water ecosystems are in danger nowadays because of the negative influence of chemical releases in seas, oceans, or inland waters. The crucial issue is to prevent the oil spills and mitigate their consequences. Thus, there is a need for methods capable of reducing the water pollution and enhancing the effectiveness of port and marine environment preservation. The challenge in implementing actions to remove and prevent horizontal oil discharge lies in accurately determining its shape and direction of oil spreading. The author employed a self-designed software utilizing modified and developed mathematical probabilistic models to forecast the movement and dispersion of an oil spill in diverse hydrological and meteorological conditions. This involved determining the trajectory and movement of a spill domain, which consists of elliptical sub-domains undergoing temporal changes. The research results obtained are the initial results in the oil spill simulation problem. This approach represents an expanded and innovative method for determining the spill domain and tracking its movement, applicable to oceans and seas worldwide. It expands upon the methodologies firstly discussed, thereby broadening the range of available techniques in this field. A simple model of an oil spill trajectory simulation and a surface oil slick as an ellipse is illustrated using a time-series of selected hydro-meteorological factors that change at random times. The author proposes a Monte Carlo simulation method to determine the extent of an oil spill in an aquatic ecosystem, taking into account the influence of varying hydro-meteorological conditions. A semi-Markov model is defined to capture the dynamics of these conditions within the spill area and develop an enhanced algorithm for predicting changes in the shape and movement of the spill domain under changing these conditions. By applying the algorithm, a simulation is conducted to provide short-term prediction of the oil discharge trajectory in a selected Baltic Sea waterway. To enhance the accuracy of predicting the process of changing conditions, uniformly tested joint datasets from the open sea water area were incorporated. Finally, the potential future prospects and directions for further research in this field are discussed.

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“…The aviation industry is constantly evolving and, with advances in technology and widespread computerisation, seeks to optimise operating costs and improve travel safety. Aviation is characterised by a high level of safety compared to other forms of transport Ingraham (2015); Kuben et al (2019); Kolowrocki et al (2017). This is due to the numerous requirements that both aeronautical structures and crew training programmes and operating processes must meet.…”

Section: Risk Aspects In the Introduction Of New Aircraft Designsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparison of Flight Safety Between Different Aircraft Modifications

Woch,

Tomaszewska,

Zieja

et al. 2023

Proceeding of the 33rd European Safety and Reliability Conference

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This paper discusses the relationship between the next aircraft modifications on the number and consequences of accidents or incidents. The problem is discussed on the example of selected models of the Boeing brand. The first part of the paper discusses the impact of introducing new designs on flight safety. The differences between modifications of selected Boeing aircraft are briefly presented. Definitions of an accident and an aircraft incident are quoted and the sources of data used for the analysis are presented. In the next part of the study, the number of aircraft of a given type in service at a given time was estimated based on delivery reports. The numbers of aircraft in service were compared with aircraft accident and incident reports. The number of adverse occurrences per aircraft of a given type in the sequential years following the introduction of a new model was presented in tables and graphs. In the following part of the study, the probability of occurrence of different loss categories in the first two years of operation after the launch of the new aircraft models was calculated. Finally, the results obtained are summarised and discussed as well as interpreted.

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Safety and risk prediction of port oil piping transportation system impacted by climate-weather change process

Cited by 6 publications

References 2 publications

Forecast of Hydro–Meteorological Changes in Southern Baltic Sea

Forecast of Hydro–Meteorological Changes in Southern Baltic Sea

Oil Discharge Trajectory Simulation at Selected Baltic Sea Waterway under Variability of Hydro-Meteorological Conditions

Comparison of Flight Safety Between Different Aircraft Modifications

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