Safety interval analysis: A risk-based approach to specify low-risk quantities of uncertainties for contractor’s bid proposals

Rezaie, Kamran; Gereie, A.; Ostadi, Bakhtiar; Shakhseniaee, M.

doi:10.1016/j.cie.2008.04.009

Cited by 8 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…To evaluate the performance of the proposed model, it is customized for the project of constructing a plant's petrochemical similar to [27]. In this project, five uncertainties are considered.…”

Section: Numerical Test and Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this project, five uncertainties are considered. The uncertainties and their distribution functions are presented in Table 2 [27].…”

Section: Numerical Test and Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Classification of papers based on risk methodology Table 2. Uncertainties ' distribution functions [27] Table 3. Relationships between uncertainties Table 4.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A novel risk assessment approach using Monte Carlo simulation based on co-occurrence of risk factors: A case study of a petrochemical plant construction

Ostadi

Harofteh

2020

Scientia Iranica

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Nowadays, because of the advancement of technology and subsequently unpredictable events, it is important for addressing risk management as an important part of projects and business. In this paper, a novel approach based on Monte Carlo simulation has been proposed for risk assessment, which considers the co-occurrence of risks. In this method, the output of extended and classic Monte Carlo simulation is applied for co-occurrence-based risk assessment (CORA) and prioritization. Also, the magnitude in each source of uncertainty has been determined by a new approach. The proposed model investigates risk's relationship and determines the type of effect as resonance or reduction in addition to identifying and analyzing the risks. Also, a system dynamic model is applied to illustrate the relationships of risks. Finally, this method is applied to a petrochemical project. Five risks as temperature, rain, labor, cost, and inflation are considered in this project. Based on the numerical results, the most important risk is inflation. Also, there is a significant different between the result of the proposed model in comparison with model that ignore the co-occurrence of risks. CORA helps the manager to consider all aspect of risks and help them to have a better decision.

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Section: Numerical Test and Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this project, five uncertainties are considered. The uncertainties and their distribution functions are presented in Table 2 [27].…”

Section: Numerical Test and Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

A novel risk assessment approach using Monte Carlo simulation based on co-occurrence of risk factors: A case study of a petrochemical plant construction

Ostadi

Harofteh

2020

Scientia Iranica

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“…Another way is to stop the simulation process when the sampled values are able to fit the probability distribution which they have been extracted from. For the situations where there are dependencies between PVs, it is suggested to use the method proposed by Rezaie, Amalnika, Gereie, Ostadi, and Shakhseniaeea (2007) and Rezaie, Gereie, Ostadi, and Shakhseniaee (2009) which considers the dependencies while sampling the values in order to provide feasible sampled values.…”

Section: Monte Carlo Simulation Imentioning

confidence: 99%

A comprehensive framework for project selection problem under uncertainty and real-world constraints

Shakhsi‐Niaei

Torabi

Iranmanesh

2011

Computers & Industrial Engineering

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“…If the safety interval is too small, it will increase the risk of exceeding water quality standards (Rezaie et al, 2007); while simply enlarging the safety interval could affect the use of the WEC and hence socialeconomic activities. Therefore, a proper safety interval must be provided for WEC management (Rezaie et al, 2009), which involves identifying major uncertainty sources, quantifying their degree and relative importance, and determining the safety interval of WEC (Tutmez, 2009;Warmink et al, 2010). Among different sources of model uncertainties, parameter uncertainty (Van Griensven et al, 2006;Shen et al, 2010;Li et al, 2010) is predominant and also widely present due to the increase of model complexity, which greatly increases the number of parameters involved.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Uncertainty analyses on the calculation of water environmental capacity by an innovative holistic method and its application to the Dongjiang River

Chen

Wang

et al. 2014

Journal of Environmental Sciences

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The estimation and allocation of water environmental capacity (WEC) are essential to water quality management and social-economic interests. However, there is inevitable uncertainty in the capacity estimation due to model conceptualization, data collection and parameter calibration. An innovative holistic approach was developed, which took both independence and relevance between parameters into account to analyze the uncertainties in WEC calculation and estimate the margin of safety. The Dongjiang River was taken as the case to demonstrate the method, focusing on the chemical oxygen demand and NH 4 + -N that were the two major water quality problems in the river. The results showed that the proposed holistic approach is very promising and applicable compared to traditional methods of uncertainty analysis.

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Safety interval analysis: A risk-based approach to specify low-risk quantities of uncertainties for contractor’s bid proposals

Cited by 8 publications

References 7 publications

A novel risk assessment approach using Monte Carlo simulation based on co-occurrence of risk factors: A case study of a petrochemical plant construction

A novel risk assessment approach using Monte Carlo simulation based on co-occurrence of risk factors: A case study of a petrochemical plant construction

A comprehensive framework for project selection problem under uncertainty and real-world constraints

Uncertainty analyses on the calculation of water environmental capacity by an innovative holistic method and its application to the Dongjiang River

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