Sample-Selection Biases and the Industrialization Puzzle

Abstract

Understanding long-term changes in human well-being is central to understanding the consequences of economic development. An extensive anthropometric literature purports to show that heights in the United States declined between the 1830s and the 1890s, which is when the U.S. economy modernized. Most anthropometric research contends that declining heights reflect the negative health consequences of industrialization and urbanization. This interpretation, however, relies on sources subject to selection bias. Our meta-analysis shows that the declining height during industrialization emerges primarily in selected samples. We also develop a parsimonious diagnostic test that reveals, but does not correct for, selection bias in height samples. When applied to four representative height samples, the diagnostic provides compelling evidence of selection.

Transportation and Health in the Antebellum United States, 1820–1847

“…A more nuanced concern is that selection into military service was nonrandom (Bodenhorn, Guinnane, and Mroz 2017). This concern is mitigated by the fact that nearly half of the population at risk for military service enlisted (Zimran 2019).…”

“…This view is reinforced by Zimran's (2019) formal investigation of bias in historical height data sources, which finds that the height data in the Union Army records suffer from little bias. 18 Moreover, my inclusion of county, birth year, and enlistment year fixed effects in all main specifications addresses many of the possible forms of this bias, such as changing incentives for enlistment over time (Bodenhorn, Guinnane, and Mroz 2017) and differences over counties in ideology (Zimran 2019(Zimran , 2020a. But, in the end, I am not able to rule out the possibility that selection may have varied by county-birth cohort such that selection changed in response to transportation, creating a relationship between observed height and transportation that does not reflect the relationship between actual height and transportation.…”

Black living standards in South Africa before democracy: New evidence from height

“…Whether the samples are representative of the national population is just one of many possible selection biases when using height as a measure of living standards. Bodenhorn et al 46 caution that changing labour market conditions may influence a worker's decision to opt for military service. In particular, an increase in private sector wages may have diverted the strongest (i.e.…”

Living standards and inequality in the industrial revolution: Evidence from the height of University of Edinburgh students in the 1830s

“…3 Anthropometric indicators are outcome variables, the other approach is calorie accounting to assess the amount of food available during the industrial revolution (e.g. see Kelly and Ó Gráda 2013 & Meredith and Oxley 2014) 4 However, a recent study by Bodenhorn et al (2017) argue that these results suffer from selection issues at the individual level that cannot be observed. distribution of income, Allen (2009) highlights the fact that real wages were constant and productivity growing to illustrate high levels of inequality in the early industrialisation of England.…”

“…Our results are based on the outcome of an experiment conducted on University of Edinburgh (UofE) students in the 1830s by James David Forbes, a famed natural philosopher. 8 Our contribution is to utilise this middle and upper class snapshot in combination with other sources that allow to proxy living standards of the working class. This study complements the findings of Komlos (2007) whilst also providing an insight into developments across the British Isles.…”