Sanctions, Perceptions, and Crime

Abstract

The interplay of sanctions, perceptions, and crime has special significance in criminology and is central to a long tradition of perceptual deterrence research as well as to more recent scholarship on crime decision-making. This article seeks to review this body of research as it pertains to three basic questions. First, are people's perceptions of punishment accurate? The evidence indicates that people are generally but imperfectly aware of punishments allowed under the law but are nevertheless sensitive to changes in enforcement, especially of behaviors that are personally relevant. Second, does potential apprehension affect people's perceived risk and behavior when faced with a criminal opportunity? A highly varied body of literature supports the conclusion that perceptions are sensitive to situational cues and that behavior is sensitive to perceived risk, but these links can be weakened when individuals are in emotionally or socially charged situations. Third, do people revise their risk perceptions in response to crime and punishment experiences? Studies of perceptual change support the contention that people systematically update their perceptions based on their own and others’ experiences with crime and punishment. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Criminology, Volume 5 is January 2022. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.

The role of experience in deterring crime: A theory of specific versus general deterrence

“…A number of empirical studies offer evidence supporting this assumption. Nagin (2013) and Apel (2022) provide reviews of this literature, which includes studies from both economics and criminology. A notable economic study is Lochner (2007), who finds that individuals who experience an arrest subsequently increase their perceived probabilities of future arrest, while those who avoid arrest subsequently reduce their perceptions 6 .…”

“…However, considerable evidence demonstrates that individuals, in fact, update their perceptions of the probability of apprehension based on experience (see Apel, 2022; Nagin, 2013). The fundamental question of interest in the current study is how direct and indirect experiences affect deterrence and the resulting crime rates.…”

“…Moreover, Chopard and Obidzinski (2021) examine the implications for law enforcement policy of the resulting “decisions under ambiguity” by criminal offenders. These types of psychological factors and biases can affect perceived probabilities of apprehension, as well as the updating of those perceptions in response to experience (Apel, 2022). Nonetheless, the evidence overall suggests that individuals update rationally (see, e.g., Anwar & Loughran, 2011; Apel, 2022; Coutts, 2019).…”

“…For a recent review of the literature on the validity of this assumption, see Coutts (2019). For discussions of the evidence supporting Bayesian updating specifically in the context of apprehension and sanctions, see Anwar and Loughran (2011) and the reviews by Nagin (2013) and Apel (2022).…”

“…These types of psychological factors and biases can affect perceived probabilities of apprehension, as well as the updating of those perceptions in response to experience (Apel, 2022). Nonetheless, the evidence overall suggests that individuals update rationally (see, e.g., Anwar & Loughran, 2011; Apel, 2022; Coutts, 2019).…”