SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in India: epidemiological features and in silico analysis of the effect of interventions

Abstract

Background: After SARS-CoV-2 set foot in India, the Government took a number of steps to limit the spread of the virus in the country. This included restricted testing, isolation, contact tracing and quarantine, and enforcement of a nation-wide lockdown starting 25 March 2020. The objectives of this study were to i) describe the age,gender distribution and mortality among COVID-19 patients identified till 14 April 2020 and predict the range of contact rate; and ii) predict the number of active COVID-19 patients after 40 days of lockdown. Methods: We used a cross-sectional descriptive design for first objective and a susceptible-infected-removed model for in silico predictions. We collected data from government-controlled and crowdsourced websites. Results: Studying age and gender parameters of 1161 Indian COVID-19 patients, the median age was 38 years (IQR, 27-52) with 20-39 year-old males being the most affected group. The number of affected patients were 854 (73.6%) men and 307 (26.4%) women. If the current contact rate continues (0.25-27), India may have 110460 to 220575 infected persons at the end of 40 days lockdown. Conclusion: The disease is majorly affecting a younger age group in India. Interventions have been helpful in preventing the worst-case scenario in India, but will be unable to prevent the spike in number of cases.

Prophylactic Role of Ivermectin in Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Infection Among Healthcare Workers

“…In our study, we also found that females had a lower risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection compared to males. The previous research from India also had similar findings [17][18].…”

Impact on health and provision of healthcare services during the COVID-19 lockdown in India: a multicentre cross-sectional study

“…3 The government of India declared a nationwide lockdown from 25 March 2020 as a preventative measure against the COVID-19 pandemic in India when the numbers of recorded cases were only 519, with nine reported deaths. 4 Although there was significant scepticism about this world's largest lockdown, maintaining social distancing in India is a mammoth challenge. Living conditions vary widely in India, population density range from an average of 1202-54 000 people per square mile in cities such as Mumbai, and India is home to 17% of the global population.…”

Biochemical composition, transmission and diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2

“…Patients can be contagious even after seroconversion [86] A few studies found SARS-CoV-2 RNA detected in the upper respiratory specimens of the recovered patients for up to 12 weeks after symptom onset [87]. Also, COVID-19 has been found to affect more men than women [88][89][90].…”