SARS-CoV-2 in Rural Latin America. A Population-based Study in Coastal Ecuador

Brutto, Oscar H. Del; Costa, Aldo F.; Mera, Robertino M.; Recalde, Bettsy Y.; Bustos, Javier A.; Garcı́a, Héctor H.

doi:10.1093/cid/ciaa1055

Cited by 52 publications

(74 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…Given the underlying heterogeneity in IFR that could not be captured by the ensemble model, it is important to consider the full range of uncertainty in these estimates as suggested by individual seroprevalence studies (grey points in Figure 3b). Estimates of high transmission levels in some South American countries are consistent with recent subnational seroprevalence studies [17][18][19] . Our…”

Section: Consistency Of Ifrs Across Serostudiessupporting

confidence: 85%

Age-specific mortality and immunity patterns of SARS-CoV-2

O’Driscoll

Santos

Wang

et al. 2020

Nature

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This is a PDF file of a peer-reviewed paper that has been accepted for publication. Although unedited, the content has been subjected to preliminary formatting. Nature is providing this early version of the typeset paper as a service to our authors and readers. The text and figures will undergo copyediting and a proof review before the paper is published in its final form. Please note that during the production process errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers apply.

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Section: Consistency Of Ifrs Across Serostudiessupporting

confidence: 85%

Age-specific mortality and immunity patterns of SARS-CoV-2

O’Driscoll

Santos

Wang

et al. 2020

Nature

1,098

1,055

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“…Increased seroconversion in individuals using a latrine confirms our baseline seroprevalence findings, consistent with a contributory role of open latrines as a source of infection (fecal contamination) [11]. In addition, we found that a shared latrine was the most likely cause of incident SARS-CoV-2 contagion among several members of two otherwise unrelated families [27].…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 86%

“…By May 2020, we conducted a cross-sectional study of SARS-CoV-2 infection in 673/691 (97.4% coverage) of middle-aged and older adults actively enrolled in the Atahualpa Project Cohort. In that study, 303 (45%) participants were positive for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, 77% of whom were symptomatic [11]. It was also demonstrated a significant association between seropositivity and the use of latrines, suggesting a contributing role for fecal-oral transmission of the disease.…”

Section: Background Datamentioning

confidence: 84%

“…The study was conducted in Atahualpa, a remote rural village in coastal Ecuador, where previous studies on SARS-CoV-2 infection have been conducted [9,[11][12][13]. Characteristics of Atahualpa residents have been described elsewhere [14].…”

Section: Study Populationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Atahualpa -a rural Ecuadorian village -was severely struck by this pandemic, as noticed by a sudden increase in adult mortality associated with respiratory diseases during April and May, 2020 [9], coinciding with the introduction of SARS-CoV-2 in Ecuador [10]. We then conducted a study of SARS-CoV-2 prevalence in middle-aged and older adults enrolled in the Atahualpa Project Cohort, and demonstrated that almost half of adult individuals had SARS-CoV-2 antibodies [11]. In addition, a case-control study conducted in the village showed a strong household transmission of the disease between adults and younger individuals [12].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Late incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in a highly-endemic remote rural village. A prospective population-based cohort study

Brutto

Costa²,

Mera

et al. 2020

Pathogens and Global Health

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Data on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in rural communities is scarce or non-existent. A previous cross-sectional study in middle-aged and older adults enrolled in the Atahualpa Project Cohort demonstrated that 45% of participants had SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, 77% of whom were symptomatic. Here, we assessed the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the abovementioned rural population. One month after baseline testing, 362 of 370 initially seronegative individuals were re-tested to assess incidence of seroconversion and associated risk factors. Twenty-eight of them (7.7%) became seropositive. The overall incidence rate ratio was 7.4 per 100 person months of potential virus exposure (95% C.I.: 4.7-10.2). Six seroconverted individuals (21.4%) developed SARS-CoV-2-related symptomatology. The only covariate significantly associated with seroconversion was the use of an open latrine. Predictive margins showed that these individuals were 2.5 times more likely to be infected (95% C.I.: 1.03-6.1) than those using a flushing toilet. Therefore, along one month, approximately 8% of seronegative individuals became infected, even after almost half of the population was already seropositive. Nevertheless, a smaller proportion of incident cases were symptomatic (21% versus 77% of the earlier cases), and no deaths were recorded. Whether this decreased clinical expression resulted from a lower viral load in new infections cannot be determined. Increased seroconversion in individuals using latrines is consistent with a contributory role of fecal-oral transmission, although we cannot rule out the possibility that latrines are acting as a proxy for poverty or other unknown interacting variables.

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An Analysis COVID-19 in Mexico: a Prediction of Severity

et al. 2022

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BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) causes a mild illness in most cases; forecasting COVID-19-associated mortality and the demand for hospital beds and ventilators are crucial for rationing countries' resources. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate factors associated with the severity of COVID-19 in Mexico and to develop and validate a score to predict severity in patients with COVID-19 infection in Mexico. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort. PARTICIPANTS:We included 1,435,316 patients with COVID-19 included before the first vaccine application in Mexico; 725,289 (50.5%) were men; patient's mean age (standard deviation (SD)) was 43.9 (16.9) years; 21.7% of patients were considered severe COVID-19 because they were hospitalized, died or both. MAIN MEASURES:We assessed demographic variables, smoking status, pregnancy, and comorbidities. Backward selection of variables was used to derive and validate a model to predict the severity of COVID-19. KEY RESULTS:We developed a logistic regression model with 14 main variables, splines, and interactions that may predict the probability of COVID-19 severity (area under the curve for the validation cohort = 82.4%). CONCLUSIONS:We developed a new model able to predict the severity of COVID-19 in Mexican patients. This model could be helpful in epidemiology and medical decisions.

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SARS-CoV-2 in Rural Latin America. A Population-based Study in Coastal Ecuador

Cited by 52 publications

References 11 publications

Age-specific mortality and immunity patterns of SARS-CoV-2

Age-specific mortality and immunity patterns of SARS-CoV-2

Late incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in a highly-endemic remote rural village. A prospective population-based cohort study

An Analysis COVID-19 in Mexico: a Prediction of Severity

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