Background
Limited systematic surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 in the early months of the United States epidemic curtailed accurate appraisal of transmission intensity. Our objective was to perform case detection of an entire rural community to quantify SARS-CoV-2 transmission using PCR and antibody testing.
Methods
We conducted a cross-sectional survey of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the rural town of Bolinas, California (population 1,620), four weeks following shelter-in-place orders. Participants were tested between April 20 th – 24 th, 2020. Prevalence by PCR and seroprevalence from two forms of antibody testing were performed in parallel (Abbott ARCHITECT IgG and in-house IgG ELISA).
Results
Of 1,891 participants, 1,312 were confirmed Bolinas residents (>80% community ascertainment). Zero participants were PCR positive. Assuming 80% sensitivity, it would have been unlikely to observe these results (p<0.05) if there were >3 active infections in the community. Based on antibody results, estimated prevalence of prior infection was 0.16% (95% CrI: 0.02%, 0.46%). The positive predictive value (PPV) of a positive result on both tests was 99.11% (95% CrI: 95.75%, 99.94%), compared to PPV 44.19%-63.32% (95% CrI range 3.25%-98.64%) if one test was utilized.
Conclusions
Four weeks following shelter-in-place, SARS-CoV-2 infection in a rural Northern California community was extremely rare. In this low prevalence setting, use of two antibody tests increased seroprevalence estimate precision. This was one of the first community-wide studies to successfully implement synchronous PCR and antibody testing, particularly in a rural setting. Widespread testing remains an underpinning of effective disease control in conjunction with consistent uptake of public health measures.