SARS-COV-2: SIR Model Limitations and Predictive Constraints

Abstract

Background: The main purpose of this research is to describe the mathematical asymmetric patterns of susceptible, infectious, or recovered (SIR) model equation application in the light of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) skewness patterns worldwide. Methods: The research modeled severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-COV-2) spreading and dissemination patterns sensitivity by redesigning time series data extraction of daily new cases in terms of deviation consistency concerning variables that sustain COVID-19 transmission. The approach opened a new scenario where seasonality forcing behavior was introduced to understand SARS-COV-2 non-linear dynamics due to heterogeneity and confounding epidemics scenarios. Results: The main research results are the elucidation of three birth- and death-forced seasonality persistence phases that can explain COVID-19 skew patterns worldwide. They are presented in the following order: (1) the environmental variables (Earth seasons and atmospheric conditions); (2) health policies and adult learning education (HPALE) interventions; (3) urban spaces (local indoor and outdoor spaces for transit and social-cultural interactions, public or private, with natural physical features (river, lake, terrain). Conclusions: Three forced seasonality phases (positive to negative skew) phases were pointed out as a theoretical framework to explain uncertainty found in the predictive SIR model equations that might diverge in outcomes expected to express the disease’s behaviour.

Questioning the seasonality of SARS-COV-2: a Fourier spectral analysis

“…On the other side, we have tried to observe a natural phenomenon, just resorting to a mathematical technique able to detect the presence of evidence towards periodicity/non-periodicity in the spread of COVID-19, with neutrality and regardless of the underlying factors. Another factor that could have an influence on the seasonality is how urban spaces are lived and the corresponding impact on the spreading patterns of the virus 9. While we recognise that this factor is important and comparable with those of climate and policies, we admit that we have not addressed this issue in this study.…”

“…In contrast, during the pandemic stage, it only drives modest changes 8. Finally, very inspiring theoretical results were achieved also in a study by Telles et al where it has been demonstrated that a combination of factors, including climate, control policies and the use of urban spaces could influence the seasonality of COVID-19 9…”

Susceptible Infectious and Recovered Model for Severity of COVID-19 Pandemic in Nigeria

“…SARS-CoV-2 has so far spread rapidly to 210 countries and territories around the world and 2 international conveyances with 8,687,390 confirmed cases, 4,577,476 recovered cases and 459,098 deaths recorded as of June 19 th , 2020, 18:34 GMT (Worldometer, 2020). World Health Organization (WHO) had declared COVID-19 as a global pandemic owing to its sustained transmission on six continents (Muhammad et al 2020;Roberto et al 2021;Giuseppe, 2021).…”

A Model of Panic Buying and Workforce under COVID-19

“…A few studies closely related to our research have anatomized the determinants and influences of panic buying. Roberto et al [ 3 ] discussed the flaws of the classical SIR model and pointed out a few limitations from both agent’s behavior and authorities’ policies. Chua et al [ 4 ] proposed a specified health belief model to identify the determinants of panic buying, while Yuen et al [ 5 ] based their study on the agent’s behavior and derived the psychological causes of panic buying.…”