China is confronting the challenge
of opposite health benefits
(OHBs) during ambient ozone (O3) mitigation because the
same reduction scheme might yield opposite impacts on O3 levels and associated public health across different regions. Here,
we used a combination of chemical transport modeling, health benefit
assessments, and machine learning to capture such OHBs and optimize
O3 mitigation pathways based on 121 control scenarios.
We revealed that, for the China mainland, Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei
and its surroundings (“2 + 26” cities), Yangtze River
Delta, and Pearl River Delta, there could be at most 2897, 920, 1247,
and 896 additional O3-related deaths in urban areas, respectively,
accompanying 21,512, 3442, 5614, and 642 avoided O3-related
deaths in rural areas, respectively, at the same control stage. Additionally,
potential disbenefits during O3 mitigation were “pro-wealthy”,
that is, residents in developed regions are more likely to afford
additional health risks. In order to avoid OHBs during O3 abatement, we proposed a two-phase control strategy, whereby the
reduction ratio of NO
X
(nitrogen oxide)
to VOCs (volatile organic compounds) was adjusted according to health
benefit distribution patterns. Our study provided novel insights into
China’s O3 attainment and references for other countries
facing the dual challenges of environmental pollution and associated
inequality issues.