Satellite Data and Machine Learning for Benchmarking Methane Concentrations in the Canadian Dairy Industry

Abstract

Amid escalating climate change concerns, methane—a greenhouse gas with a global warming potential far exceeding that of carbon dioxide—demands urgent attention. The Canadian dairy industry significantly contributes to methane emissions through cattle enteric fermentation and manure management practices. Precise benchmarking of these emissions is critical for developing effective mitigation strategies. This study ingeniously integrates eight years of Sentinel-5P satellite data with advanced machine learning techniques to establish a methane concentration benchmark and predict future emission trends in the Canadian dairy sector. By meticulously analyzing weekly methane concentration data from 575 dairy farms and 384 dairy processors, we uncovered intriguing patterns: methane levels peak during autumn, and Ontario exhibits the highest concentrations among all provinces. The COVID-19 pandemic introduced unexpected shifts in methane emissions due to altered production methods and disrupted supply chains. Our Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network model adeptly captures methane concentration trends, providing a powerful tool for planning and reducing emissions from dairy operations. This pioneering approach not only demonstrates the untapped potential of combining satellite data with machine learning for environmental monitoring but also paves the way for informed emission reduction strategies in the dairy industry. Future endeavors will focus on enhancing satellite data accuracy, integrating more granular farm and processor variables, and refining machine learning models to bolster prediction precision.