Satellite‐derived rainstorm distribution as an aid to forecasting African armyworm outbreaks

Tucker, M. R.

doi:10.1002/j.1477-8696.1997.tb06311.x

Cited by 6 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…The rainy season occurs from October to April and the cold cloud duration (CCD) profile for that period was used to provide an indication of both the pattern and amount of rainfall over the course of the season. The use of quite detailed temporal and spatial CCD information has proved of great value predicting armyworm outbreaks whose population dynamics are similarly rainfall-driven (Tucker 1997;Holt et al 2000); here it was used more simply, to categorise season type. Originally accessed via the FAO/Artemis project (Hielkema 2008), CCD data, interpreted as rainfall in mm per day, is now freely available at daily resolution (Maidmant et al 2017).…”

Section: A Qualitative Description Of Rainfall In Southern Botswanamentioning

confidence: 99%

Armoured bush cricket, Acanthoplus discoidalis (Walker) (Orthoptera: tettigoniidae) outbreak prediction using rainfall patterns in three zones of Botswana

Mviha

Holt

Green

2021

Int J Trop Insect Sci

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Based on a quantitative understanding of the environmental factors effecting armoured bush cricket, Acanthoplus discoidalis population dynamics, a hypothesis was formulated to explain the occurrence of outbreaks in some years and locations. The principles, expressed using a rule-based or qualitative model, were that nymph and adult survival and fecundity were reduced in years with uneven rainfall and that egg survival was reduced in years with a wet late-season as this is associated with increased egg predation and/or water-logging. The implication was that large egg banks resulted either when a large number of adults were present or when neither low fecundity nor high egg mortality were constraints. Such large egg banks were however predicted only to lead to outbreaks when there was an adequate amount of food for nymph and adult survival in the following season. Model predictions were compared with observed outbreaks of A. discoidalis between 1988 to 2002 for the three climatic zones of the east, central and western parts of southern Botswana. There was significant agreement between model predictions and observed outbreaks in two of the three zones (95% confidence interval of the kappa coefficient of agreement > 0). Taking the data for all three zones together and compared to the average outbreak frequency, an outbreak was three times more likely to occur when the model predicted an outbreak and six times less likely to occur when it predicted no outbreak.

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Section: A Qualitative Description Of Rainfall In Southern Botswanamentioning

confidence: 99%

Armoured bush cricket, Acanthoplus discoidalis (Walker) (Orthoptera: tettigoniidae) outbreak prediction using rainfall patterns in three zones of Botswana

Mviha

Holt

Green

2021

Int J Trop Insect Sci

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“…It has also been used with other methods, such as that developed by Bristol University (Barrett, 1993). In eastern Africa the TAMSAT method has been used successfully, together with NOAA vegetation index imagery, in Ethiopia to aid food security programmes (Tadesse et al, 1995) and in Kenya and Tanzania for insect-pest forecasting (Tucker, 1997). However, it has not been considered suitable for rainfall estimation in the Kenya highlands because of the occurrence of orographic rainfall and the complexity of the topography.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A comparison of Meteosat rainfall estimation techniques in Kenya

Tucker¹,

Sear²

2001

Meteorological Applications

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Two methods for estimating ten‐day rainfall totals from Meteosat infra‐red imagery were compared for the April–June 1996 ‘long rains’ of Kenya in an area covering the eastern highlands and the Tana and Athi river basins. One of these (the Bristol ‘B4’ method) was then used for rainfall estimation for the whole of Kenya, for November 1996 and the other, the TAMSAT ‘Cold Cloud Duration’ (CCD) method was used to estimate rainfall for the whole of Kenya for November 1997 to April 1998. April–June 1996 was an unusual season with very few large rainstorms. For this comparison period the B4 method gave better estimates of actual rainfall than the TAMSAT method because it used a variable cold cloud threshold temperature and ongoing calibration against rain gauge data. Comparison of ten‐day CCD totals with rainfall for the 1997–1998 period indicated that using the TAMSAT method gave best rainfall estimates for the arid and semi‐arid areas of eastern and northern Kenya and for months other than the main rainy season months of November and April. Both methods could be used successfully to identify periods with well below or well above average rainfall even over highland areas, and they are therefore useful for providing food security early warnings. Copyright © 2001 Royal Meteorological Society

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Riders on the Wind: The Aeroecology of Insect Migrants

2017

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Satellite‐derived rainstorm distribution as an aid to forecasting African armyworm outbreaks

Abstract: . (1981) The long-range surface wind, even as far as 50km from the coast. mast. Weather, 47,

Cited by 6 publications

References 16 publications

Armoured bush cricket, Acanthoplus discoidalis (Walker) (Orthoptera: tettigoniidae) outbreak prediction using rainfall patterns in three zones of Botswana

Armoured bush cricket, Acanthoplus discoidalis (Walker) (Orthoptera: tettigoniidae) outbreak prediction using rainfall patterns in three zones of Botswana

A comparison of Meteosat rainfall estimation techniques in Kenya

Riders on the Wind: The Aeroecology of Insect Migrants

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