Satisfied unlike me? How the perceived difference with close network contacts prevents radical and protest voting

Abstract

Fitting with a common scheme across European democracies, the last election in Belgium led radical (left and right) parties to increase their vote share. One of the key drivers of the radical vote is political dissatisfaction (Droste 2011). Yet, the latter does not always translate into radical or protest voting behaviors. Using the 2019s RepResent Belgian Elections Study, we show the moderating effect of close social contacts in this relationship. For dissatisfied voters who believe that most contacts are similarly discontent, the probability to vote for radical parties (or, if not, to adopt other protest behaviors) is reinforced. However, the odds decrease the more they perceive their contacts different from themselves, i.e., as politically satisfied voters. Then, they become more likely to avoid protest/radical choices and to vote for institutionalized parties. Overall, our study yields findings showing that voting behaviors should be studied by considering also the voters' social networks, which seem to exert a role in defining the acceptability of voting choices. What matters is not only how one perceives politics but also how one believes his close contacts perceive politics too.

The Ideological Drivers Behind the Support for the Use of Direct Democracy among Voters and Parties of Benelux Countries

“…However, similar to the literature on citizens' preferences for democracy (König et al 2022), the empirical results remain fragmented and are not always consistent when it comes to the ideological roots of referendum support. Somehow connected to the dissatisfied thesis, what recent studies have observed is instead a strong cleavage based on radical and moderate party preferences, between people voting for radical parties and those moderate voters opting for mainstream parties embedded in traditional left or right ideologies (Paulis and Ognibene 2022). People casting vote in favour of parties located at the extreme, both on the right and left sides of the political spectrum, are more favourable to referendums (Rojon and Rijken 2020;Schuck and de Vreese 2015).…”

Теоретические Основания Формирования Социального Недовольства

“…Тогда с большей вероятностью они будут избегать протестного голосования. Отсюда специфику недовольства и/или голосования необходимо изучать с точки зрения не только личностных мотиваций, но и сетей социального взаимодействия [Paulis, Ognibene 2022].…”