Scalable and Sustainable: How to Build Anticipatory Capacity into Social Protection Systems

Abstract

Climate shocks contribute to a significant share of the humanitarian burden, and are a key factor in increasing poverty and food insecurity. Social protection is increasingly recognised as an instrument to help build resilience to climate risks through long-term, large-scale national systems. However, most experiences to date have focused on social protection's role for chronic needs, or at best, shock-response, rather than on anticipation and prevention. This article argues that social protection can support more effective resilience building at scale by integrating early action and preparedness. We propose a concrete solution, namely linking a Forecast-based Financing mechanism to a social protection system to enable anticipatory actions based on forecast triggers and guaranteed funding ahead of a shock. Such a system may enhance scalability, timeliness, predictability and adequacy of social protection benefits. Key considerations for success of this emerging approach include sound analysis of forecast, risks, cost and benefits, and ring-fenced funding.

Building resilience to climate risks through social protection: from individualised models to systemic transformation

“…While the examples from the PSNP and HSNP make a convincing argument for using social protection to deliver a more timely and cost‐efficient disaster response, they are only one part of the picture in managing climate risks systematically. To reduce the burden of shocks on vulnerable populations and increase the cost effectiveness of support, acting earlier, even before the shock has happened, may be crucial (Costella et al, ). Many climate‐related hazards such as storms, floods and droughts can be predicted, often including estimates of their location, intensity, probability and duration.…”

“…Social protection can integrate early action and preparedness to support more effective resilience‐building at scale. However, few systematic experiences have focused on designing and implementing programmes to help households and governments anticipate such shocks (Ulrichs and Slater, ), for instance by linking to or setting up early warning early action systems (triggers and contingency planning) to respond as soon as a shock happens or even before it does (Costella et al, ).…”

“…Based on the experience of forecast‐based financing (FbF), a recent paper (Costella et al, ) explores whether social protection can be linked to these approaches from the humanitarian sector. FbF is a mechanism that enables early warning systems to take early action measures based on pre‐agreed forecast triggers and protected funding.…”

Integrating social protection and climate change adaptation: A review

“…Forecasts can also be used to trigger actions before an event that puts people at risk occurs (Costella et al, ; Siegel et al, ; Wilkinson et al, ).…”

Innovation Pathways to Adaption for Humanitarian and Development Goals: A Case Study of Aftershock Forecasting for Disaster Risk Management

“…Adaption theory defines and categorises the changes required for effective response to climate change and its impacts (Gupta et al 2010). It is used to link climate change adaption and risk transition to development and humanitarian goals (Costella et al 2017, Marin & Maess 2017, Begum et al 2014, Bahadur, Ibrahim & Tanner 2013. It has also crossed-over to the development sphere and is being used to frame social change for development in general (Solecki, Pelling & Garschagen 2017, Wise et al 2014, Gibson & Pelling 2014, Pinske & Kolk 2012, Pelling 2011, O'Brien et al 2008.…”