Changes in global (ocean and land) precipitation are among the most important and least well-understood consequences of climate change. Increasing greenhouse gas concentrations are thought to affect the zonal-mean distribution of precipitation through two basic mechanisms. First, increasing temperatures will lead to an intensification of the hydrological cycle ("thermodynamic" changes). Second, changes in atmospheric circulation patterns will lead to poleward displacement of the storm tracks and subtropical dry zones and to a widening of the tropical belt ("dynamic" changes). We demonstrate that both these changes are occurring simultaneously in global precipitation, that this behavior cannot be explained by internal variability alone, and that external influences are responsible for the observed precipitation changes. Whereas existing model experiments are not of sufficient length to differentiate between natural and anthropogenic forcing terms at the 95% confidence level, we present evidence that the observed trends result from human activities.climate modeling | multimodel database | climate change detection W ater is the single most important natural resource, and many societal and natural impacts of climate change will depend on the response of the hydrological cycle to anthropogenic warming. Several large-scale changes in precipitation, inferred from theoretical understanding, observations, and climate model predictions, are expected in a warming world (1). To first order, anthropogenic forcings are expected to influence the hydrological cycle through two basic mechanisms. "Thermodynamic" changes follow from the Clausius-Clapeyron relation, which dictates that saturation-specific humidity increases roughly exponentially with temperature, and from the vertical warming profile (2, 3). In the absence of other changes, this increase in tropospheric water vapor will make wet regions wetter and dry regions drier. Tropospheric water vapor is indeed increasing in response to human activities (4), and there is evidence that this increase has contributed to the moistening of wet regions and drying of dry regions (5-7). Existing large-scale studies (7-9) are constrained over land, and thus neglect the 77% of precipitation that falls over oceans. Thermodynamic changes are expected to be even stronger over ocean, because evaporation is limited over dry land regions, and trends in ocean salinity may indicate an intensification of the global hydrological cycle (10). However, no study has yet detected a signal of climate change in global (land and ocean) precipitation."Dynamic" changes result from shifts in atmospheric circulation, which in turn affect the horizontal and vertical transport of water vapor. Numerous observational and model-based studies have detected circulation shifts using various metrics (ref. 11 and references therein). Models indicate that increasing greenhouse gases, in the absence of other external forcing terms, result in a poleward expansion of the tropical Hadley cell and subtropical dry zones (12...