Scaling Ecological Resilience

Falk, Donald A.; Watts, Adam C.; Thode, Andrea E.

doi:10.3389/fevo.2019.00275

Cited by 91 publications

(82 citation statements)

References 122 publications

(134 reference statements)

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“…Western North American forests have long been shaped by wildfire (box 1 ), and most tree species exhibit fire-adaptive traits (Rowe and Scotter 1973 , Baker 2009 , Pausas and Keeley 2014 ). These include survival mechanisms that confer individual-level resistance to fire-caused mortality, and population-level mechanisms that promote postfire regeneration; collectively, these processes confer ecological resilience—the capacity to absorb disturbance and recover toward prior composition, structure, and function (Gunderson 2000 , Reyer et al 2015 , Ghazoul et al 2015 , Falk et al 2019 ). However, specific traits are adaptive only within particular fire regimes, and altered fire regimes can render formerly well-adapted species vulnerable (Keeley et al 1999 , Brown and Johnstone 2012 ).…”

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confidence: 99%

“…Climate warming is also creating local postfire environmental conditions outside of the regeneration niche of dominant tree species (Stevens-Rumann et al 2018 , Davis et al 2019a ). As such, heightened vulnerability to the combined impacts of changing fire regimes and climate raises concerns that, for some forest types, resilience to fire may be increasingly compromised (for a review, see Johnstone et al 2016 , Davis et al 2018 , Falk et al 2019 , Hessburg et al 2019 ).…”

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confidence: 99%

“…In the present article, we begin by cataloguing the mechanisms that can generate and maintain conversions of forested landscapes across western North America. In compiling these mechanisms within the framework of conversion, we build on earlier reviews exploring and emphasizing key components of forest resilience and vulnerability (Johnstone et al 2016 , Davis et al 2018 , Falk et al 2019 , Hessburg et al 2019 , Stevens-Rumann and Morgan 2019 ), illustrating recent observations of their operation, considering interactions and feedback processes, and highlighting their consequences and implications on the ground. Next, we draw from this mechanistic understanding to assess our capacity to predict future fire-driven forest conversions.…”

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Wildfire-Driven Forest Conversion in Western North American Landscapes

et al. 2020

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Abstract Changing disturbance regimes and climate can overcome forest ecosystem resilience. Following high-severity fire, forest recovery may be compromised by lack of tree seed sources, warmer and drier postfire climate, or short-interval reburning. A potential outcome of the loss of resilience is the conversion of the prefire forest to a different forest type or nonforest vegetation. Conversion implies major, extensive, and enduring changes in dominant species, life forms, or functions, with impacts on ecosystem services. In the present article, we synthesize a growing body of evidence of fire-driven conversion and our understanding of its causes across western North America. We assess our capacity to predict conversion and highlight important uncertainties. Increasing forest vulnerability to changing fire activity and climate compels shifts in management approaches, and we propose key themes for applied research coproduced by scientists and managers to support decision-making in an era when the prefire forest may not return.

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Wildfire-Driven Forest Conversion in Western North American Landscapes

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“…Although our study provides novel information about species resistance in an uncertain future, there are limitations to the results that should be considered. First, resistance is a complex concept often focused on numerous ecological functions (e.g., [2,4,10,79,80]). Many studies evaluate resistance through broader conceptual methods, but here we aimed to quantify the spatial resistance of individual wildlife species.…”

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confidence: 99%

Wildlife resistance and protection in a changing New England landscape

Pearman-Gillman¹,

Duveneck²,

Murdoch³

et al. 2020

PLoS ONE

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Rapid changes in climate and land use threaten the persistence of wildlife species. Understanding where species are likely to occur now and in the future can help identify areas that are resistant to change over time and guide conservation planning. We estimated changes in species distribution patterns and spatial resistance in five future scenarios for the New England region of the northeastern United States. We present scenario-specific distribution change maps for nine harvested wildlife species, identifying regions of increasing, decreasing, or stable habitat suitability within each scenario. Next, we isolated areas where species occurrence probability is high (p > 0.7) and resistant to change across all future scenarios. Resistance was also evaluated relative to current land protection to identify patterns in and out of Protected Areas (PAs). Generally, species distributions declined in area over the 50year assessment period (2010-2060), with the greatest average declines occurring for moose (-40.9%) and wild turkey (-22.1%). Species resistance varied considerably across the region, with coyote demonstrating the highest average regional resistance (91.81% of the region) and moose demonstrating the lowest (0.76% of the region). At the state level, average focal species resistance was highest in Maine (the largest state) and lowest in Massachusetts. Many of the focal species showed high overlap in resistance and land protection. Coyote, white-tailed deer, and black bear had the highest probability of resistance, given protection, while moose and wild turkey had the highest probability of protection, given resistance. Overall, relatively small portions of New England-ranging between 0.25% and 21.12%-were both protected and resistant for the focal species. Our results provide estimates of resistance that can inform conservation planning for commonly harvested species that are important ecologically, economically, and culturally to the region. Expanding protected area coverage to include resistant areas may provide longer term benefits to these species.

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“…For example, in ecosystems with sufficient fuels to carry fire, warmer, drier climates are expected to increase fuel aridity, flammability, and fire activity (Gergel et al, 2017;McKenzie and Littell, 2017). The resulting larger extent of wildfire area burned and higher severity of wildfires can increase the proportion of the landscape in the early stages of postfire recovery (Falk et al, 2019). If the post-fire bioclimatic environment is unfavorable for seedling establishment (e.g., with severe drought), forests may transition to alternative states such as shrub-or grasslands (Guiterman et al, 2018;Davis et al, 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulation Modeling of Complex Climate, Wildfire, and Vegetation Dynamics to Address Wicked Problems in Land Management

Loehman

Keane

Holsinger

2020

Front. For. Glob. Change

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Complex, reciprocal interactions among climate, disturbance, and vegetation dramatically alter spatial landscape patterns and influence ecosystem dynamics. As climate and disturbance regimes shift, historical analogs and past empirical studies may not be entirely appropriate as templates for future management. The need for a better understanding of the potential impacts of climate changes on ecosystems is reaching a new level of urgency, especially in highly perturbed or vulnerable ecological systems. Simulation models are extremely useful tools for guiding management decisions in an era of rapid change, thus providing potential solutions for wicked problems in land management-those that are difficult to solve and inherently resistant to easily definable solutions. We identify three experimental approaches for landscape modeling that address management challenges in the context of uncertain climate futures and complex ecological interactions: (1) an historical comparative approach, (2) a future comparative approach, and (3) threshold detection. We provide examples of each approach from previously published studies of simulated climate, disturbance, and landscape dynamics in forested landscapes of the western United States, modeled with the FireBGCv2 ecosystem process model. Cumulatively, model outcomes indicate that typical land management strategies will likely not be sufficient to counteract the impacts of rapid climate change and altered disturbance regimes that threaten the stability of ecosystems. Without implementation of new, adaptive management strategies, future landscapes are very likely to be different than historical or contemporary ones, with significant and sometimes persistent changes triggered by interactions of climate and wildfire.

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Scaling Ecological Resilience

Cited by 91 publications

References 122 publications

Wildfire-Driven Forest Conversion in Western North American Landscapes

Wildfire-Driven Forest Conversion in Western North American Landscapes

Wildlife resistance and protection in a changing New England landscape

Simulation Modeling of Complex Climate, Wildfire, and Vegetation Dynamics to Address Wicked Problems in Land Management

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