Early retinal vessel caliber changes may predict risk of diabetic nephropathy. We examined the association of retinal vessel diameters and the incidence of gross proteinuria and renal insufficiency in a populationbased cohort of people with type 1 diabetes (n ؍ 557). Baseline retinal photographs were digitized, and diameters of individual retinal vessels were measured and summarized. Incident cases of gross proteinuria and renal insufficiency were identified over a 16-year period. Larger retinal venular diameter was associated with higher cumulative incidence of gross proteinuria (18.6, 25.4, 37.7, and 50.4%, comparing increasing venular diameter quartiles) and renal insufficiency (10. A lthough diabetes accounts for 42% of end-stage renal disease in the U.S. (1), current methods to predict people at risk of diabetic nephropathy remain inadequate (2,3). Microangiopathy is believed to be a key pathogenic mechanism in the development of diabetic nephropathy (4 -6), and approaches that identify early stages of microvascular disease may potentially provide information regarding risk of this complication in individuals with diabetes.The retinal microcirculation, accessible to direct noninvasive visualization, shares similar physiological and pathological characteristics with the renal microcirculation (7-9). Previous studies have documented the strong association between advanced stages of diabetic retinal disease (e.g., proliferative retinopathy) and nephropathy (10 -15). However, the relationship of early retinal vessel caliber changes (e.g., arteriolar narrowing and venular dilatation) and risk of diabetic nephropathy is unknown, although altered retinal blood flow is clearly linked with the pathogenesis of diabetes (16 -22).In the Wisconsin Epidemiologic Study of Diabetic Retinopathy (WESDR), a population-based study of people with diabetes, we recently used a computer-assisted method to measure retinal vessel diameters from digitized fundus photographs (23). We have shown that narrowed retinal arterioles and dilated venules were related to severity of diabetic retinopathy, independent of duration of disease, glycemic control, blood pressure, and other risk factors. In the current study, we prospectively examine the association of retinal arteriolar and venular diameters and the 16-year incidence of gross proteinuria and renal insufficiency in the WESDR cohort.
RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODSThe WESDR has been described in detail in earlier publications (24,25). In brief, a probability sample of 10,135 diabetic patients who received primary care in an 11-county area in southern Wisconsin from 1979 to 1980, composed of "younger-onset" and "older-onset" individuals, was invited to participate in the baseline examination conducted from 1980 to 1982 (24,25). These analyses will be limited to the group of younger-onset individuals who were taking insulin and had been diagnosed before 30 years of age (n ϭ 1,210). The second examination was conducted at 4 years (1984 -1986) (26), the third at 10 years (1990 -1992) (27...