Scenario Analysis of Carbon Emissions of China’s Electric Power Industry Up to 2030

Wu, Qunli; Peng, Chenyang

doi:10.3390/en9120988

Cited by 25 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…Several studies [23][24][25] around the world have been developed using energy planning models such as LEAP in order to evaluate different scenarios for future energy consumption and carbon emissions [26]; to forecast electricity demand [24]; to evaluate the impacts of technological changes [27,28]; energy and urban planning solutions [25]; to develop policies for low carbon development [29,30]. Moreover, the use of energy planning models is essential to identify possibilities through the scenarios built for different sectors, considering the energy supply and demand and a tool to analyze future policies [30].…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of Greenhouse Gases and Pollutant Emissions in the Road Freight Transport Sector: A Case Study for São Paulo State, Brazil

et al. 2020

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This study analyzes the road freight sector of São Paulo state to identify the best options to reduce greenhouse gases emissions and local pollutants, such as particulate matter, nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, and hydrocarbons. Additionally, the investment cost of each vehicle is also analyzed. Results show that electric options, including hybrid, battery, and hydrogen fuel-cell electric vehicles represent the best options to reduce pollutants and greenhouse gases emissions concomitantly, but considerable barriers for their deployment are still in place. With little long-term planning on the state level, electrification of the transport system, in combination with increased renewable electricity generation, would require considerable financial support to achieve the desired emissions reductions without increasing energy insecurity.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of Greenhouse Gases and Pollutant Emissions in the Road Freight Transport Sector: A Case Study for São Paulo State, Brazil

et al. 2020

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“…Belderbos and Delarue [336] found the optimum power generation for various power technologies. Wu and Peng [337] used LEAP energy model to analyze the carbon emanations in power sectors of china. Kools et al [338] developed a district electricity model.…”

Section: Review Of Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

Recent Updates on Energy Planning Models - A Review

Hafeez

Gulshan

Tahira

2020

Journal of Mechanical and Energy Engineering

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Energy is the most important part for community and financial growth of any country. Energy planning models play a vital role in strategy formulation and power sector progress. In this paper a systematic review and comparison of energy planning models developed and applied from 1977-2019 has been presented. The review indicates that most of the energy planning models has been presented and applied in developed nations. Only few numbers of energy planning models have been presented and applied in under developing countries. The review also shows the comparison of energy planning models applied in developed and under-developed countries. This review article will assistance the energy managers, scholars and strategy makers broadly.

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“…Sun et al [31] applied the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology (STIRPAT) model to analyze the influencing factors of carbon emissions in the power industry. Wu and Peng [32] constructed the Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model to simulate China's national power needs in six scenarios and estimated carbon emissions and carbon intensity by 2030. Cai et al [33] used a long-term alternative energy planning system to identify three scenarios for the future development of carbon emissions generated by China's power industry.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Influencing Factors and Scenario Forecasts of Carbon Emissions of the Chinese Power Industry: Based on a Generalized Divisia Index Model and Monte Carlo Simulation

Zhu

Shang

et al. 2018

Energies

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The power industry is the industry with the most direct uses of fossil fuels in China and is one of China’s main carbon industries. A comprehensive and accurate analysis of the impacts of carbon emissions by the power industry can reveal the potential for carbon emissions reductions in the power industry to achieve China’s emissions reduction targets. The main contribution of this paper is the use of a Generalized Divisia Index Model for the first time to factorize the change of carbon emissions in China’s power industry from 2000 to 2015, and gives full consideration to the influence of the economy, population, and energy consumption on the carbon emissions. At the same time, the Monte Carlo method is first used to predict the carbon emissions of the power industry from 2017 to 2030 under three different scenarios. The results show that the output scale is the most important factor leading to an increase in carbon emissions in China’s power industry from 2000 to 2015, followed by the energy consumption scale and population size. Energy intensity levels have always promoted carbon emissions reduction in the power industry, where energy intensity and carbon intensity effects of energy consumption have great potential to mitigate carbon levels. By setting the main factors affecting carbon emissions in the future three scenarios, this paper predicts the carbon emissions of China’s power industry from 2017 to 2030. Under the baseline scenario, the maximum probability range of the potential annual growth rate of carbon emissions by the power industry in China from 2017 to 2030 is 1.9–2.2%. Under the low carbon scenario and technological breakthrough scenario, carbon emissions in China’s power industry continue to decline from 2017 to 2030. The maximum probability range of the potential annual drop rate are measured at 1.6–2.1% and 1.9–2.4%, respectively. The results of this study show that China’s power industry still has great potential to reduce carbon emissions. In the future, the development of carbon emissions reduction in the power industry should focus on the innovation and development of energy saving and emissions reduction technology on the premise of further optimizing the energy structure and adhering to the low-carbon road.

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Scenario Analysis of Carbon Emissions of China’s Electric Power Industry Up to 2030

Cited by 25 publications

References 27 publications

Assessment of Greenhouse Gases and Pollutant Emissions in the Road Freight Transport Sector: A Case Study for São Paulo State, Brazil

Assessment of Greenhouse Gases and Pollutant Emissions in the Road Freight Transport Sector: A Case Study for São Paulo State, Brazil

Recent Updates on Energy Planning Models - A Review

Influencing Factors and Scenario Forecasts of Carbon Emissions of the Chinese Power Industry: Based on a Generalized Divisia Index Model and Monte Carlo Simulation

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