Scenario Analysis of Carbon Emissions in the Energy Base, Xinjiang Autonomous Region, China

Abstract

The realization of carbon emissions peak is important in the energy base area of China for the sustainable development of the socio-economic sector. The STIRPAT model was employed to analyze the elasticity of influencing factors of carbon emissions during 1990-2010 in the Xinjiang autonomous region, China. The results display that population growth is the key driving factor for carbon emissions, while energy intensity is the key restraining factor. With 1% change in population, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, energy intensity, energy structure, urbanization level, and industrial structure, the change in carbon emissions was 0.80%, 0.48%, 0.20%, 0.07%, 0.58%, and 0.47%, respectively. Based on the results from regression analysis, scenario analysis was employed in this study, and it was found that Xinjiang would be difficult to realize carbon emissions peak early around 2030. Under the condition of the medium-high change rates in energy intensity, energy structure, industrial structure, and with the low-medium change rates in population, GDP per capita, and urbanization level, Xinjiang will achieve carbon emissions peak at of 626.21, 636.24, 459.53, and 662.25 million tons in the year of 2030626.21, 636.24, 459.53, and 662.25 million tons in the year of , 2030626.21, 636.24, 459.53, and 662.25 million tons in the year of , 2040626.21, 636.24, 459.53, and 662.25 million tons in the year of , and 2040 the background of Chinese carbon emissions peak around 2030, this paper puts forward relevant policies and suggestions to the sustainable socio-economic development for the energy base area, Xinjiang autonomous region.Sustainability 2019, 11, 4220 2 of 18 in order to mitigate the risks of global warming, the international community has made great efforts to reduce carbon emissions [4]. As an emerging market, though simultaneous development and accelerating industrialization, informatization, agricultural modernization, and urbanization, due to its long-term growth mode of high consumption, high pollution and low output, China has become the country with the largest carbon emissions [5]. In 2006, Chinese carbon emissions surpassed the United States of America (USA) and became the world's largest emitter [4]. In 2015, China accounted for 28.65% of the world's total carbon emissions, exceeding the sum of the USA (14.93%) and the European Union (9.68%), which was ranked second and third in the world, respectively (Global Carbon Project. http://www.globalcarbonatlas.org/en/ CO 2 emissions). With this, China has incurred huge attention from the world, which posed great international political pressures on China. In face of this situation, China pledged at the Copenhagen Climate Summit to increase the percentage of renewable energy in energy consumption structure to 15%, and to cut 40-45% of the energy intensity in 2020 when compared to the 2005 levels. Moreover, China promised at the Paris Agreement to increase the percentage of renewable energy in energy consumption structure to 20% and to cut 60-65% of the e...

Analyzing driving forces of China’s carbon emissions from 1997 to 2040 and the potential emission reduction path: through decomposition and scenario analysis

“…Wang et al (2019) found that based on the continuous economic development and urbanization process, CEs in Guangdong will maintain a growth trend in 2015-2030. Qin et al (2019) predicted the changes of CEs in Xinjiang and found that its CEs will peak at 626. 21-662.25Mtons in 2030-2040 predicted the CEs reduction in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region up to 2030, and found that energy intensity is the key driver for achieving CEs reduction targets.…”

Decomposition and Decoupling Analysis of Carbon Emissions in Xinjiang Energy Base, China

“…Therefore, the transformation of resource advantage into an economic advantage and technological progress of resource and energy-intensive industries will be the linchpin to achieving socioeconomic sustainable development in Xinjiang [34]. This also means that the energy-intensive industries play a decisive role in realizing the decoupling of carbon emissions in Xinjiang [6]. In the future, the mitigation of carbon emissions in Xinjiang should be by reducing the proportion of energy-intensive industries' GDP, increasing investment, and improving energy efficiency to decouple economic development from carbon emissions increase.…”

“…Greenhouse gases are regarded as the key reason for global warming [3], while carbon emissions from fossil fuel combustion are regarded as the direct contributor to greenhouse gases [4]. In the context of global warming, carbon emissions have become a strong focus in academia [5,6]. Given that, countries have joined in the procession of carbon emissions mitigation.…”

“…Therefore, Xinjiang has become one of the regions where carbon emissions have been growing rapidly since 2000 [29]. Currently, the research on carbon emissions in Xinjiang is classified as accounting for carbon emissions [30], attribution analysis [27,34], decoupling analysis [11], scenarios analysis, and policy simulation for carbon emissions mitigation [6,31]. Studies on the impact of carbon emissions in Xinjiang have achieved impressive results, but most of them focus on the analysis of economic development and influencing factors.…”

Analysis of Factors Influencing Carbon Emissions in the Energy Base, Xinjiang Autonomous Region, China

“…Research regarding carbon emissions in Xinjiang, economic growth and population scale were confirmed as important contributors to increased carbon emissions, while the decrease of energy intensity was highlighted for curbing carbon emissions [7,39]. But the approach to carbon emissions reduction will depend on effective mitigation strategy of each sector; however, variable energy intensities of different sectors can impact the magnitude of carbon reduction.…”