Scenario Analysis of the Low Emission Energy System in Pakistan Using Integrated Energy Demand-Supply Modeling Approach

Abrar, Sajid; Farzaneh, Hooman

doi:10.3390/en14113303

Cited by 11 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…This is due to the fact that the general public is often not made aware of the benefits of such technologies and there are many misconceptions surrounding how renewable energy technologies pair up against traditional energy generation methods. 52 A second reason why renewable energy technologies are not developing rapidly in the country is due to the lack of sufficient infrastructure to support said technologies. There must be a requirement for electricity in lesser developed areas of the country, which is lacking due to a lack of developed schemes and transmission networks.…”

Section: Low Market Penetrationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…When pit against traditional methods of energy generation, renewable energy technologies have very low agency on the market and a slower penetration rate. This is due to the fact that the general public is often not made aware of the benefits of such technologies and there are many misconceptions surrounding how renewable energy technologies pair up against traditional energy generation methods 52 . A second reason why renewable energy technologies are not developing rapidly in the country is due to the lack of sufficient infrastructure to support said technologies.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Energy transition through bioelectricity in Pakistan: Implications for limiting global mean temperature below 1.5°C

Raza

Aman

Tunio

et al. 2023

Env Prog and Sustain Energy

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Climate change threats demand unprecedented economic shifts around the world, including a fundamental transformation of the global energy system. An energy transition is underway in most regions, predominantly in the power sector. This research depicts the energy transition pathway for achieving 100% renewable energy systems through bioenergy in Pakistan. The growth rate of 20%, 30%, and 40% in biomass projects were considered for the study period 2023 to 2053 using the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) software. It presents a technology-rich, multi-sectoral and cost-optimal energy transition pathway for limiting global mean temperature below 1.5 C. The results revealed that Pakistan's electricity generation undergoes a rapidly evolving transition from predominantly fossil fuels 62.1% in 2023 to 81.3% renewables in 2053, and entirely zero CO 2 emissions by 2060. Hydro source is costly, wind and solar sources are seasonal so biomass emerges as the major electricity supply source in a cost optimal energy transition of Pakistan. Share of biomass is increasing from a mere 0.81% in 2023 to around 9.44% by 2053 under the 20% growth rate, which then increase to 39.67% by 2053 under the 30% growth rate and further increases to 78.33% by 2053 under the 40% growth rate. Pakistan contributes 0.8% of the global carbon footprint, but we are among the 10 most climate-stressed countries on the planet in 2023 so this study helps to reduce cumulative CO 2 emissions from 151.63 million metric tons to 8.90 million metric tons from 2023 to 2053 across the power, heat, transport, and desalination sectors. K E Y W O R D S biomass, CO 2 emissions, energy policy, environmental planning, waste management 1 | INTRODUCTION The Paris Agreement (PA) was agreed on December 2015 during the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change's (UNFCCC), 21st Conference of Parties (COP21). 1 It went into effect on November 4, 2016, and superseded the Kyoto Protocol, a previous international pact to reduce CO 2 emissions. 2 Its principal goal is to strengthen the mechanisms in place to tackle climate change by keeping the global average temperature rise much below 1.5 C over preindustrial levels. 3 For this purpose, the PA was signed by 195 countries, to reduce carbon emissions and put together a joint effort for preventing global warming. 4 Of these 195 countries, 17 are of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and South-Eastern Europe. 4 These countries are of particular interest as their transition

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Section: Low Market Penetrationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Energy transition through bioelectricity in Pakistan: Implications for limiting global mean temperature below 1.5°C

Raza

Aman

Tunio

et al. 2023

Env Prog and Sustain Energy

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…With only 2 Gt in 1990, global energy-associated CO 2 emissions are presumed to emerge to nearly 36.8 Gt in 2022 (International Energy Agency, 2023). Therefore, countries around the world will need to manage carbon emissions in order to maintain economic growth (Abrar & Farzaneh, 2021;. This will help them accomplish the worldwide goal of sustainable development as well.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Substituting clean energy resources like hydro, wind, and solar for harmful power resources like coal, oil, and gas in the manufacturing procedure safeguards environmental sustainability and macroeconomic presentation of the countries by lowering carbon emissions, decreasing dependence on imported fossil fuels, and relieving the burden on the steadiness of expenditures (Xiuhui & Raza, 2022). Therefore, countries around the world have recognized the importance of green energy by adopting policies like the Kyoto Agreement, which requires signatory nations to lessen their carbon emissions and upsurge the usage of renewable resources in industrial processes (Abrar & Farzaneh, 2021;Shan et al, 2021). This goal is also reflected in Agenda 2030's SDG 7, which is titled "affordable and clean energy.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Green Energy and Technological Innovation Towards A Low-Carbon Economy in Bangladesh

Raihan

2023

GLCE

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This study aims to investigate the influences of green energy, technological innovation, economic growth, urbanization, and labor force, on the low-carbon economy in Bangladesh. Bangladesh was chosen for this study as the country in the sixth most vulnerable nation, and the results of climate change on the country's ecology and economy have been devastating. By using yearly data extending from 1990 to 2020, this research employed the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique to explore the connections between explained and explanatory factors across both the short and long term. The ARDL bounds test decisions pointed to a long-term connection between the variables. The empirical results revealed that a 1% increase in economic growth, urbanization, and labor force would lead to 1.09%, 1.14%, and 0.19% increase in carbon economy in the long run while 1.67%, 1.50%, and 0.29% increase in the short run, respectively. However, the findings indicated that a 1% boost in green energy utilization and technology innovation would result in a 0.21% and 0.18% decline in the carbon economy in the long run whereas 0.15% and 0.10% drop in the short run, respectively. The outcomes of the investigation demonstrated that economic growth, urbanization, and labor force all impact adversely accomplish the low-carbon economy, making green energy utilization and technological innovation the best crucial approaches to maintain environmental sustainability. The study's findings specify a policy structure for developing a thorough tactic to stimulate environmental sustainability in Bangladesh, with a focus on ecological innovation, green energy utilization, and controlled urbanization. This article put forward policy implications aimed at a low-carbon economy, promoting green energy use, financing technological advancement, sustainable urbanization, and educating the labor force, to achieve environmental sustainability and emission reduction in Bangladesh.

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“…The region of this study is the north Punjab region of Pakistan in South Asia which has an average recorded warming of 0.75°C and is considered one of the most vulnerable areas hit by environmental deterioration globally. The transport sector of Pakistan is accounted for 29% of the total CO 2 releases of the country [ 5 ] with road transport catering to 94% of the overall passenger transport and 98% of the overall freight transportation while the remaining 6% of passenger and 2% of freight requirement is being met by rail and air modes [ 6 ]. Optimizing the modal mix for this area would allow significant carbon reduction targets to be met on a long-term basis for the country.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development of AI-Augmented optimization technique for analysis & prediction of modal mix in road transportation

Rauf,

Umer

2023

PLoS ONE

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Transport sector contribution to global emissions is a known fact, however, the mitigation path to achieve nationally determined goals for carbon reduction is often not specified, A simplified technique based on minimax optimization using Grey relational grade and Random forest narrows down on most contributing input variables from twelve road transport modes. This is a region-specific, scenario-based technique applied to north Punjab, Province of Pakistan that first categorizes modes based on their emission and then integrates with AI modeling using Deep Neural Network to develop sustainable trade-offs for carbon reduction. The output parameter translates the problem into a systematic iterative technique that predicts optimization options with different scenarios to bring out an environment-friendly transport mix. A 25% reduction applied to the five most emission-releasing modes like Diesel Light and Heavy Duty vehicles, Gas Light and heavy-duty vehicles, and Gas-Cars results in 16.54 MT of Carbon dioxide which is 54.35% reduced to the predicted 36.24 MT for the year 2044. Similarly in another scenario replacing 25% Gas and Diesel Light Duty vehicles respectively by adding 50% Petrol Light Duty vehicles leads to 18.94 MT of emissions which brings the emission value in 2044 at par with emission releases of the year 2014. The technique offers a forward path that allows environment-friendly modal mix combinations based on business-as-usual to offer transport mix solutions for carbon reduction. It is a generalized model that is based on a customized transport mix. Future studies can also be applied to intermodal tradeoffs like rail, air, waterways, etc.

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Scenario Analysis of the Low Emission Energy System in Pakistan Using Integrated Energy Demand-Supply Modeling Approach

Cited by 11 publications

References 33 publications

Energy transition through bioelectricity in Pakistan: Implications for limiting global mean temperature below 1.5°C

Energy transition through bioelectricity in Pakistan: Implications for limiting global mean temperature below 1.5°C

Green Energy and Technological Innovation Towards A Low-Carbon Economy in Bangladesh

Development of AI-Augmented optimization technique for analysis & prediction of modal mix in road transportation

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