Scenario analysis to support decision making in addressing wicked problems: Pitfalls and potential

Wright, George; Cairns, George; O’Brien, Frances A.; Goodwin, Paul

doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2018.08.035

Cited by 58 publications

(31 citation statements)

References 98 publications

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“…Ladner pointed out the quantitative analysis was inadequate to make that decision and that a qualitative ethnography study was required. As with our discussion, they were not arguing that qualitative methods should replace quantitative methods but should be used in a complementary manner (Evans, 2016;Wright et al, 2018). Soft OR methods help give understanding to the problem before any quantitative analysis has been conducted.…”

Section: Generality Of the Resultsmentioning

confidence: 93%

“…Other case studies purely focus on showing soft OR benefit and are of limit educational value (Checkland and Scholes, 1999;Eden and Ackermann, 2001;Rosenhead and Mingers, 2001;Ritchey, 2006;Mingers, 2009). An overview of other examples of showcasing case studies can be found in Wright et al (2018). These case studies tend to be written in a verbose scientific style which is difficult to follow for a non-academic (Collins and Hester, 2016).…”

Section: Valuementioning

confidence: 99%

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The need for simple educational case-studies to show the benefit of soft operations research to real-world problems

Collins

Shull

Thaviphoke

2019

IJSSE

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Soft operations research (OR) methods have the potential to provide deep qualitative insights into the complex problems that face our world. However, the propagation of soft OR has, at best, stagnated in recent years and it has been rejected from mainstream academic hard (quantitative) OR. In this paper, it is proposed that there is a need for simple educational example that actually shows the benefit of soft OR. The paper suggests that these examples should be real-world case studies that do not include convoluted graphics or verbose prose descriptions. An example case study has been included in this paper. This case study investigates the impact of beer price changes to two virtually identical restaurant-bars in the Hampton Roads region of the USA. The case study shows that a simple quantitative analysis results in erroneous conclusions which could be avoided by conducting a simple qualitative analysis.

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Section: Generality Of the Resultsmentioning

confidence: 93%

Section: Valuementioning

confidence: 99%

The need for simple educational case-studies to show the benefit of soft operations research to real-world problems

Collins

Shull

Thaviphoke

2019

IJSSE

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“…As such, it provides a means to consider the pathdependence that results in multiple failed interventions in the same place, and whether a newly-conceived intervention is truly on a scale, or of a kind, to shift the locality onto an alternative path of development when many similar attempts have failed. Wright et al (2019) review other augmentations to the IL scenario approach and their ability to assist with socalled 'wicked problems', which bear some of the hallmarks of ontological uncertainty. A wicked problem is one that is 'ill-formulated, where the information is confusing, where there are many clients and decision makers with conflicting values, and where the ramifications in the whole system are thoroughly confusing' (Churchman, 1967, p. B-141).…”

Section: Insert Table 1 Herementioning

confidence: 99%

“…A central requirement for tackling wicked problems is holism, implying the inadequacy of standard statistical-modelling approaches such as regression analysis, which tackle problems by breaking them into component parts, and examining the effect of each in isolation (Byrne, 2002). In reviewing scenario tools that can assist better with wicked problems, Wright et al (2019) highlight the Critical Scenario Method (CSM) (Cairns et al, 2010;Cairns et al, 2016).…”

Section: Insert Table 1 Herementioning

confidence: 99%

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Answers to questions on uncertainty in geography: Old lessons and new scenario tools

Derbyshire

2019

Environ Plan A

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In many domains, including geography, there can be the implicit assumption that improved data analysis and statistical modelling must lead to improved policymaking, and its perceived failure to do so can be disconcerting. Yet, this assumption overlooks the fundamental distinction between epistemological and ontological uncertainty, as discussed herein. Epistemological uncertainty describes the known and bounded inaccuracy of our knowledge about the world as now. Whereas ontological uncertainty describes the rendering completely obsolete of this present knowledge by surprises in the form of currently unknown future events, and by cascading changes to beliefs, attitudes and behaviours made by diverse actors in response to – and in anticipation of others’ responses to – new developments. This paper does the following: (a) shows that because of ontological uncertainty, improved data analysis and statistical modelling can never lead straightforwardly to improved policymaking, no matter how well implemented; (b) outlines how probability-based tools offer little assistance with ontological uncertainty because they are based on present perceptions of future possibilities; (c) urges geographers to reconcile with ontological uncertainty as a source of potentially transformational change, rather than viewing it as a problem to be overcome or something to be defended against; and (d) reviews a range of new, non-probabilistic scenario tools that, when used in combination, can assist in harnessing ontological uncertainty for transformational purposes by surfacing what is to be gained and by whom from enabling, blocking or altering intended policy outcomes, and by searching for future possibilities unconstrained by the present.

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Scenarios, strategic conversations, and forecasting: A commentary on Rowland and Spaniol (2021)

Fildes

2021

Futures & Foresight Science

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This commentary revisits an early book review by the author of Kees van der Heijden's influential book, Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation, highlighting the continuing neglect of the role of forecasting in scenario construction. In addition, there still remains considerable ambiguity as to whether scenarios offer more than plausible stories. The review highlights the need to resolve these ambiguities in the scenario research literature through a better understanding of the links between forecasting and scenario construction. The benefit of success would be a greater understanding of long‐term uncertainty.

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Scenario analysis to support decision making in addressing wicked problems: Pitfalls and potential

Abstract: Please refer to published version for the most recent bibliographic citation information. If a published version is known of, the repository item page linked to above, will contain details on accessing it.

Cited by 58 publications

References 98 publications

The need for simple educational case-studies to show the benefit of soft operations research to real-world problems

The need for simple educational case-studies to show the benefit of soft operations research to real-world problems

Answers to questions on uncertainty in geography: Old lessons and new scenario tools

Scenarios, strategic conversations, and forecasting: A commentary on Rowland and Spaniol (2021)

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