Scenario‐based fertility projections incorporating impacts of COVID‐19

Berrington, Ann; Ellison, Joanne; Kuang, Bernice; Vasireddy, Sindhu; Kulu, Hill

doi:10.1002/psp.2546

Cited by 34 publications

(41 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…Countries with more generous welfare systems, with higher level of support for families, with lower level of income inequality and with overall better functioning economy and labour market provide conditions that may act as a cushion, shielding individuals and families from the negative impact of the pandemic. Family policies that are universal and are not tied to employment activity can potentially contribute to higher fertility in uncertain times (Berrington et al 2022). Research by Lappegård et al (2022) on rising fertility rates in Norway during the pandemic highlights the important role of family policies, including generous welfare benefits to families with children, in bolstering economic and social security and thus creating favourable conditions for childbearing.…”

Section: Policies Welfare System and Labour Markets Moderate The Impa...mentioning

confidence: 99%

From bust to boom? Birth and fertility responses to the COVID-19 pandemic

Sobotka¹,

Jasilioniene²,

Zeman³

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Past economic, health and policy shocks were associated with a downturn in fertility. We use monthly birth data collected by the Human Fertility Database (Short-Term Fertility Fluctuations data series) to analyze the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on birth trends until April 2022 in 37 highly developed countries. We also present estimates of monthly total fertility rate adjusted for seasonality. Overall, the coronavirus pandemic did not bring a lasting “baby bust” in most of the analyzed countries. On balance, many countries experienced an improvement in their birth dynamics compared with the pre-pandemic period. This was especially the case in the Nordic countries, German-speaking countries and Western Europe, alongside New Zealand, Israel and Quebec. However, this summary picture hides distinct short-term shifts during the pandemic. The initial pandemic shock resulted in a fall in births in most countries, with the sharpest drop in January 2021. Next, birth rates showed a surprising short-term recovery in March 2021, linked with the conceptions after the end of the first wave of the pandemic. Most countries then reported stable or slightly increasing numbers of births in the subsequent months, especially in Autumn 2021. Yet another downturn in births and fertility rates occurred in January-April 2022.

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Section: Policies Welfare System and Labour Markets Moderate The Impa...mentioning

confidence: 99%

From bust to boom? Birth and fertility responses to the COVID-19 pandemic

Sobotka¹,

Jasilioniene²,

Zeman³

et al. 2022

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Fostik ( 70 ) also reviews the previous papers and indicates that COVID-19 is expected to decrease the fertility rate in Canada. Berrington et al ( 71 ) document that the COVID-19 pandemic is negatively associated with the fertility rate in the United Kingdom. Luppi et al ( 72 ) observe that COVID-19 reduces fertility plans in young people (18-34 years old) in Germany, France, Spain, and the United Kingdom.…”

Section: Literature Review On Fertility Decisionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of pandemics uncertainty on fertility

Wang¹,

Gözgör

Lau

2022

Front. Public Health

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The COVID-19 pandemic has affected various dimensions of the economies and societies. At this juncture, this paper examines the effects of pandemics-related uncertainty on fertility in the panel dataset of 126 countries from 1996 to 2019. For this purpose, the World Pandemics Uncertainty Indices are used to measure the pandemics-related uncertainty. The novel empirical evidence is that pandemics-related uncertainty decreases fertility rates. These results are robust to estimate different models and include various controls. We also try to explain why the rise in uncertainty during the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in the fertility decline.

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“…For this reason, [ 90 ], in the absence of more timely data, use data from Google search term volume for keywords related to fertility to predict some features of fertility change expected from the pandemic in the United States at the state level that is: the direction, magnitude, and timing of fertility change. Also, [ 91 ] examine fertility trends up to 2019 in the United Kingdom and discuss the possible impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on childbearing behaviour. Based on this, the authors draw several possible future scenarios for fertility rates.…”

Section: Background: a Literature Review On Fertility And Age Structu...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Projecting Spanish fertility at regional level: A hierarchical Bayesian approach

2022

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The transition from a demographic regime of high mortality and high fertility to one with low mortality and low fertility is universal and comes along with the process of socio-economic modernization. The Spanish total fertility rate has decreased to below replacement levels in the last decades. The decline has persisted since the 1960s and is diverse across the country. Based on that diversity, the use of population forecasts, not only at national but at regional levels, for planning purposes (governments and private sector) with large horizons has become a must to provide essential services. Using a Bayesian hierarchical model we constructed probabilistic fertility forecasts for Spain at the regional level. Although this approach is already issued by the United Nations little research has been done focusing on the Spanish subnational level. Our objective is to disaggregate the national projections of the total fertility rate for Spain into regional forecasts. The results of this research will show the model fitting, first to the national level and then using a multifaceted and continuous evolution of fertility over time, at the regional level, to check its convergence.

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Scenario‐based fertility projections incorporating impacts of COVID‐19

Cited by 34 publications

References 44 publications

From bust to boom? Birth and fertility responses to the COVID-19 pandemic

From bust to boom? Birth and fertility responses to the COVID-19 pandemic

Effects of pandemics uncertainty on fertility

Projecting Spanish fertility at regional level: A hierarchical Bayesian approach

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