Scenario development and practical decision making under uncertainty

Pomerol, Jean‐Charles

doi:10.1016/s0167-9236(00)00131-7

Cited by 81 publications

(46 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…Secondly, it may provide a good balance between the analytic and intuitive components of decision making, as well as between the roles of analyst and manager (Schoemaker, 1991). Finally, an integration of the methods that allows for within and across case comparison can provide a documented rationale for a particular choice, or a shortlist of options supported by an elaboration on the conditions in which they perform best (Roy, 1998;Pomerol, 2001). Table 1 summarises the literature that involves integration of SP and MCDA to date.…”

Section: Mcda and Sp For The Evaluation Of Strategic Optionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…When combined with option planning (where all options are put forward on a neutral mode) and a clear, structured view of what is desirable, scenarios provide a coherent framework for evaluating strategic options (Wack, 1985a, b). They may also emphasise the importance of developing strategic options so that the final choice is robust (ie capable of responding to a variety of changes in uncontrollable factors) (Roy, 1998(Roy, , 2010Pomerol, 2001).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Extending the use of scenario planning and MCDA for the evaluation of strategic options

Ram

Montibeller

Morton

2011

Journal of the Operational Research Society

109

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Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is well equipped to deal with conflicting, qualitative objectives when evaluating strategic options. Scenario planning provides a framework for confronting uncertainty, which MCDA lacks. Integration of these methods offers various advantages, yet its effective application in evaluating strategic options would benefit from scenarios that reflect a larger number of wide-ranging scenarios developed in a time-efficient manner, as well as incorporation of MCDA measures that inform within and across scenario comparison of options. The main contribution of this paper is to illustrate how a more diverse set of scenarios could be developed quickly, and to investigate how regret could be used to facilitate comparison of options. First, the reasons for these two areas of development are elaborated with respect to existing techniques. The impacts of applying the proposed method in practice are then assessed through a case study involving food security in Trinidad and Tobago. The paper concludes with a discussion of findings and areas for further research.

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Section: Mcda and Sp For The Evaluation Of Strategic Optionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extending the use of scenario planning and MCDA for the evaluation of strategic options

Ram

Montibeller

Morton

2011

Journal of the Operational Research Society

109

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“…At the qualitative level, the conceptual simulation is often used to refer to a type of everyday reasoning strategy commonly called "look ahead" reasoning [36] or "what if " reasoning [43]. Scientists use conceptual simulation in situations of informational uncertainty to make inferences from their data using a process of alignment by similarity detection.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

CxG-based simulation of Group Activity

Brézillon¹

2018

MUC

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.Brezillon@lip6.fr RÉSUMÉ. Le formalisme des Graphes contextuels permet de représenter la réalisation d'une tâche par un acteur. L'objectif est de fournir aux décideurs un panorama clair des différentes pratiques pour réaliser une tâche, et ainsi pouvoir choisir la meilleure pratique dans le contexte rencontré. Le formalisme des Graphes Contextuels a été utilisé avec succès dans de nombreux domaines tels que la médecine, la biologie, et les transports. Dans ce papier, nous proposons une extension du formalisme pour modéliser des activités collaboratives, et illustrer les extensions apportées dans une application de taille réelle pour l'Armée (projet TACTIC). Les extensions portent sur (1) l'introduction de paramètres de simulation pour manager les interactions entre acteurs, (2) une notion de tour pour modéliser une traversée du méta-graphe contextuel (le modèle de l'activité du groupe), (3) un mécanisme de gestion des tours entre les membres du groupe pour manager l'utilisation cyclique du méta-graphe contextuel, et (4) un simulateur basé sur les graphes contextuels pour étudier les interactions entre les acteurs. Une réelle compréhension d'une activité collaborative ne se limite pas à aider le décideur, mais à fournir aussi des outils pour construire des applications opérationnelles. ABSTRACT. The Contextual-Graph (CxG) formalism allows the representation of a task realization by an actor. The objective is to provide decision makers with a clear panorama of the different ways to realize a task (i.e. the practices), and thus of the implications of choosing one alternative or another. The Contextual-Graph formalism has been successfully used in many fields, such as medicine, biology, and transportation. In this paper, we extend the formalism to modeling group activity, and illustrate its extensions on a real-world application called the TACTIC project. The extensions concern the introduction of (1) simulation parameters for managing the interactions among the actors, (2) the notion of turn for representing a traversal of the contextual meta-graph (the model of the group activity), (3) a turn mechanism for incorporating the cyclic use of the contextual meta-graph, and (4) a CxG-based simulator for studying interaction among group members. A real understanding of group activity does not just help decision makers, but also provides real requirements for building successful applications. MOTS-CLÉS. Activité de groupe, activité collaborative, modèle d'interaction entre acteurs, réalisation d'une tâche, contexte, Graphes Contextuels (CxG), simulation basée sur les graphes contextuels, mécanisme de management de tours entre les acteurs.

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“…Then, continuing the story, the diagnosis opens the door to some anticipation and various scenarios. Once more, there is no decision without the capability of writing scenarios [21,22]. This entails that the rca process is tale dependent!…”

Section: Proceduralizationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Moreover, the rca process also encompasses the design of some scenarios to allow an anticipation of the forthcoming events and of the results of the possible actions. In this process, the uncertainty is reduced by action postponement [22] and the prior gathering of the maximum of information. When one operator chooses to undertake an action, the uncertainty is rather about the current context than about future.…”

Section: Proceduralizationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Context Proceduralization in Decision Making

Pomerol

Brézillon

Modeling and Using Context

Self Cite

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Abstract. Although it seems obvious that decision making is a contextual task, papers dealing with decision making tackle rarely the problem of contextual information management. After a brief presentation of our view on context, we examine the contextual dimension of decision making. Then we explain our views about the acquisition of contextual data and the construction of a reasoning framework appropriate for decision making. We call this process proceduralization and we refer to a rational construction for action (rca).

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Scenario development and practical decision making under uncertainty

Cited by 81 publications

References 17 publications

Extending the use of scenario planning and MCDA for the evaluation of strategic options

Extending the use of scenario planning and MCDA for the evaluation of strategic options

CxG-based simulation of Group Activity

Context Proceduralization in Decision Making

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