Scenario development, qualitative causal analysis and system dynamics

Abstract

The aim of this article is to demonstrate that technology assessments can be supported by methods such as scenario modeling and qualitative causal analysis. At Siemens, these techniques are used to develop preliminary purely qualitative models. These or parts of these comprehensive models may be extended to system dynamics models.While it is currently not possible to automatically generate a system dynamics model from a qualitative model (or vice versa, obtain a qualitative simulation model from a system dynamics model), the two techniques scenario development and qualitative causal analysis provide valuable indications on how to proceed towards a system dynamics model. For the qualitative analysis phase, the Siemens-proprietary prototype Computer-Aided Technology Assessment Software (CATS) supportes complete cycle and submodel analysis. Keywords ResumenEl propósito de este artículo es demostrar que avalúos tecnológicos pueden ser apoyados por métodos tales como la modelación de escenarios y el anlisis causal cualitatativo. En Siemens, estas técnicas se usan para desarrollar modelos preliminares puramente cualitativos. Estos modelos comprensivos o partes de ellos, pueden ser extendidos a modelos de sistemas dinámicos.Aún si no es posible en este momento generara automáticamente un modelo de sistemas dinámicos a partir de un modelo cualitativo (o vice-versa, obtener un modelo de simulación cualitativo a partir de un modelo de sistemas dinámicos), las dos técnicas de desarrollo de escenarios y análisis cualitativo causal, proveen información valiosa sobre cómo proceder para obtener un modelo de sistemas dinámicos. Para la fase de análisis cualitativo, el prototipo propiedad de Siemens Computer-Aided Technology Assessment Software CATS provee un análisis completo de ciclos y submodelos.Palabras-clave: cuidados en salud, telecomunicaciones, modelo cualitativo, análisis de sensibilidad, sistemas dinámicos.

Workforce planning in project-driven companies: a high-level guideline

“…The introduction of the causal loop diagram allows to consider the impact of changes on the system's variables, by enabling the analysis of different scenarios (Sing et al, 2016). Scenario development is a predictive method in which present data are used to develop various alternative future scenarios (Ruge et al, 1998). Based on the literature's information, an example is provided in Figure 1.…”

Dynamic Modeling of Workforce Planning for Infrastructure Projects

“…A number of scenarios can be performed to explore the impact of the interconnections and feedback loops on the workforce condition for infrastructure projects. Scenario development is a predictive method where the present data is used to develop various alternative future scenarios (Ruge et al 2009). For instance, a supply model allows policy makers to manipulate relevant data within each year to produce alternative scenarios such as the number of students admitted to the training program and the immigration rate.…”